Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6089ce0c68de0e32127c2ad996e9ded98c7550d18734c9630b22ab0f88fa3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked No | 0c | 10,029$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e415backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed No | 13c | 8,044$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…3461backed No | 1c | 6,494$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…d018backed No | 45c | 6,009$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,723.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad40…a697backed No | 50c | 5,797$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,905.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,802$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 50c | 3,085$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,541.77 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…867fbacked Yes | 56c | 2,997$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 8c | 2,600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…3cb0backed No | 1c | 2,273$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed No | 50c | 1,275$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.33 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 43c | 1,119$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.97 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 59c | 1,077$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed No | 43c | 1,074$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.27 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 64c | 959.03$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.73 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 11c | 763.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe615…d068backed No | 8c | 687.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…64dabacked Yes | 66c | 667.53$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 63c | 578.74$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.74 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 64c | 562.07$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 47c | 539.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…52cdbacked No | 38c | 520.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…f3c5backed No | 39c | 510.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…7c49backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 64c | 498.89$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.39 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…0754backed No | 42c | 471.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 60c | 468.49$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.49 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 59c | 453.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.17 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 44c | 453.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…a3dbbacked No | 37c | 403.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…5e91backed No | 38c | 395.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 62c | 390.14$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 56c | 347.93$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 34c | 340.95$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 49c | 340$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 61c | 329.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 55c | 329.07$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 74c | 295.54$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 74c | 258.66$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…1d31backed No | 42c | 240.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 64c | 233$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 230.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…a595backed No | 44c | 225.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 46c | 221$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…dc0cbacked No | 46c | 211.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…8a7dbacked No | 48c | 209.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed No | 36c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…97e5backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 194.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 41c | 188.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…c2a3backed No | 40c | 187.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 60c | 185.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…c675backed Yes | 56c | 177.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 60c | 174.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…ef35backed No | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2932…5a17backed No | 30c | 167.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d11…11b3backed No | 46c | 164.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7980backed No | 45c | 161.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…7b2dbacked Yes | 63c | 158.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 25c | 154.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 54c | 153.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8118…8400backed Yes | 66c | 152.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…5158backed Yes | 60c | 145.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 65c | 141$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 55c | 139.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…c31bbacked Yes | 61c | 138.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…f1fdbacked No | 39c | 138.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 74c | 135.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 26c | 129.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…5dddbacked No | 40c | 125.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…0c8ebacked Yes | 58c | 121.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…0783backed No | 44c | 112.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…0ec3backed No | 46c | 109.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 55c | 106.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…1be8backed No | 50c | 106.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ea…209bbacked Yes | 62c | 103.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…5bf9backed No | 50c | 100.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…3753backed No | 50c | 100.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…60a7backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1659…4b24backed No | 45c | 99.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…c6ddbacked No | 48c | 92.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…adbcbacked No | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…d8ccbacked Yes | 57c | 88.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Yes | 63c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…f24fbacked Yes | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…655ebacked No | 48c | 83.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…55dcbacked Yes | 61c | 81.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 68c | 80.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…01c0backed No | 47c | 76.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.