Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67bd677396c026e161b4e734ae237f1367a45e3eb587be67576c079eee7cb26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,922$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 2c | 3,010$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…f14fbacked No | 4c | 2,985$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed27…2e46backed No | 5c | 1,900$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 9c | 1,057$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 10c | 919.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 15c | 909$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 74c | 801.73$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 749.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed No | 12c | 728.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 720.69$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 5c | 619.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 4c | 594.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked No | 4c | 563.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…738cbacked No | 45c | 529.76$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 6c | 517$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 47c | 463.73$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 50c | 461.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.99 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 434.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 13c | 409.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 371.56$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 58c | 343.46$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked No | 31c | 326.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…c74abacked No | 12c | 325.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 73c | 313.89$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 300.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 17c | 289$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 60c | 248.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 12c | 246.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…d9babacked No | 45c | 239.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…017ebacked No | 49c | 236.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 225.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 76c | 222.74$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…341cbacked No | 8c | 218.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce97…127abacked No | 49c | 216.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 59c | 215$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…9c4abacked Yes | 53c | 187.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 8c | 182.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…a658backed No | 25c | 180.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 64c | 164.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…c581backed Yes | 63c | 158.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…ce38backed Yes | 66c | 150.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 21c | 145$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…41b5backed No | 12c | 142.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed No | 19c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 129.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…e399backed Yes | 74c | 121.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…4da6backed No | 15c | 113.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5b1fbacked Yes | 61c | 110.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…8da6backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…64a0backed No | 46c | 97.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 31c | 88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 15c | 87.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 67c | 86.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…f975backed No | 50c | 81.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked Yes | 58c | 76.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…b2dabacked Yes | 72c | 72.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed Yes | 64c | 71.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…19a3backed No | 59c | 64.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…51e3backed Yes | 63c | 63.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 62.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…60a7backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…7dafbacked Yes | 65c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 71c | 56.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…8b4abacked Yes | 64c | 56.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 71c | 56.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…fd20backed No | 60c | 54.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb39…e932backed No | 46c | 51.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…a984backed No | 44c | 50.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…a0e2backed No | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…789dbacked No | 54c | 41.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 53c | 40.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…3d9cbacked Yes | 50c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…2facbacked Yes | 64c | 38.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 67c | 37.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -8.0wins | -0.50per pick | 68cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…79abbacked Yes | 56c | 35.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227b…e8f4backed No | 44c | 34.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…d27cbacked No | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…a761backed No | 65c | 30.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1595…2cf9backed No | 37c | 29.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 41c | 26.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…bbc5backed Yes | 60c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…9335backed No | 59c | 23.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…378fbacked Yes | 60c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…8742backed Yes | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.