Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c805587933d498ebf46638ad13a1ad3a4f769a2cab84de06c8802e12a2f0c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a88…de38backed Yes | 1c | 6,368$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc73…a938backed No | 76c | 4,505$3,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8c…a355backed Yes | 24c | 4,500$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,120$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…a1ebbacked No | 68c | 2,078$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…b767backed No | 78c | 1,610$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…b1d0backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…d018backed No | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,480$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32c…56b9backed Yes | 35c | 1,443$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 21c | 1,205$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.73 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 31c | 777$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.87 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 21c | 684.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 641.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 505$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 501.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 30c | 500.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 28c | 452$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.26 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 27c | 439.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 10c | 436.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 26c | 395.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 12c | 337.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c10…2f5dbacked Yes | 30c | 333.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…02f3backed No | 67c | 320.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked Yes | 21c | 312.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 69c | 291.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…70acbacked No | 69c | 289.1$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 7c | 268.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 40c | 257.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed Yes | 28c | 244$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3263…6e17backed No | 66c | 231.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 25c | 231.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 226.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 20c | 225.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 216.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…6a57backed Yes | 32c | 211.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 70c | 207.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 29c | 200.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…a0ebbacked Yes | 6c | 199.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea1…9becbacked No | 80c | 188.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed3…c43fbacked Yes | 36c | 164.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…32f0backed No | 62c | 162.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 157.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…ebd2backed No | 64c | 156.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…bfdcbacked No | 65c | 154.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…bfa3backed No | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fe7dbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…5bf9backed No | 73c | 138.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…8ff5backed Yes | 22c | 138.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 137.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…60b7backed Yes | 44c | 136.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 27c | 134.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 132.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 130.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340e…6672backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 30c | 122.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 29c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…d621backed Yes | 42c | 119.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…4523backed Yes | 46c | 119.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…14bebacked No | 71c | 119$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14aa…ae2bbacked No | 66c | 116.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 35c | 114.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…1a38backed No | 68c | 109.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…65f1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…7487backed Yes | 36c | 96.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46eb…f1dfbacked No | 62c | 96.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 94.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked Yes | 40c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…77e3backed No | 70c | 88.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…2e45backed No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed Yes | 25c | 85.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked No | 65c | 84.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…866bbacked Yes | 37c | 83.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…fc35backed No | 63c | 79.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…6365backed Yes | 22c | 76.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 16c | 75.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…20abbacked Yes | 26c | 75.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…4044backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed Yes | 48c | 74.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 64c | 74.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…6bc4backed Yes | 34c | 74.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…9e29backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…189fbacked Yes | 36c | 73.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 34c | 70.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 67.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 21c | 62.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…5accbacked No | 63c | 62.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.