Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb46ce3cb5440e8f4de4646d4940786c7660271bc961ef8108645438b8ba7c095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,623,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,552,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,623,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 501 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 2c | 151,775$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.04 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 81,000$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…3a52backed Yes | 10c | 62,686$6,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 3c | 59,490$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.16 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 5c | 59,344$2,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.87 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…e768backed Yes | 5c | 38,709$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…e488backed Yes | 1c | 37,762$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a8…7addbacked Yes | 3c | 29,855$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…a3b5backed Yes | 4c | 28,154$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 1c | 20,899$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59c…2d37backed Yes | 2c | 15,941$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…6f6cbacked Yes | 17c | 15,566$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…d2b4backed Yes | 1c | 14,457$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 13c | 14,343$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.17 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 1c | 14,128$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.84 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 8c | 13,439$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 12,147$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.33 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 11,166$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…26cbbacked Yes | 2c | 11,027$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 3c | 10,549$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed Yes | 3c | 10,349$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Yes | 4c | 10,329$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…3ab0backed Yes | 3c | 9,923$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…6a46backed Yes | 3c | 9,082$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…1b7dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,081$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5014…872ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,808$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3b87backed Yes | 8c | 8,771$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…00f2backed Yes | 4c | 8,539$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 4c | 8,230$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.83 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ca51backed Yes | 4c | 8,117$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 7,919$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 7,501$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.15 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…a841backed Yes | 2c | 7,230$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…2c6dbacked Yes | 11c | 7,063$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,983$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.35 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…8169backed Yes | 1c | 6,973$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac77…a91ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,921$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…7941backed Yes | 6c | 6,515$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e8…0b88backed Yes | 1c | 6,472$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 6,258$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.91 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 5,852$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.86 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9970…e736backed Yes | 4c | 5,616$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…97b7backed Yes | 3c | 5,537$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…5afdbacked Yes | 33c | 5,371$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 2c | 5,237$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…2209backed Yes | 4c | 5,211$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…405fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,040$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 4,824$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.73 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,768$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…7ab7backed Yes | 3c | 4,551$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +5,285.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed Yes | 11c | 4,424$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.65 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…6cc6backed Yes | 6c | 4,395$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…0346backed Yes | 6c | 4,241$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…2ff3backed Yes | 1c | 4,226$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 4,210$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…7688backed Yes | 1c | 4,166$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 16c | 4,001$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.87 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…40dbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,963$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc009…6e29backed Yes | 2c | 3,816$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…f46abacked Yes | 1c | 3,716$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 2c | 3,584$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 23c | 3,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…e5c3backed Yes | 3c | 3,413$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…1de5backed Yes | 1c | 3,363$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…6582backed Yes | 47c | 3,220$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…f4e2backed Yes | 3c | 3,178$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 2c | 3,077$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…a16abacked Yes | 3c | 3,050$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8176…156dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,035$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 59c | 3,035$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.09 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…1320backed Yes | 3c | 2,932$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 2,787$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.41 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 2,735$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 5c | 2,722$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a02…d0b8backed Yes | 2c | 2,585$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…88f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,577$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…0783backed Yes | 8c | 2,554$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 2,416$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef2…e362backed Yes | 2c | 2,372$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…81f2backed Yes | 2c | 2,354$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,305$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 2,302$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…91b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,249$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…9a27backed Yes | 2c | 2,147$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 75c | 2,120$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.16 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…62f3backed Yes | 14c | 2,116$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 48c | 2,032$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.01 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 2c | 2,018$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a3…6216backed Yes | 10c | 1,970$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,937$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…c0e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,925$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…459fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,868$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…6648backed Yes | 2c | 1,767$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,714$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…5505backed Yes | 3c | 1,713$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebe…19d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,694$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f29…97cebacked Yes | 11c | 1,694$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…20abbacked Yes | 13c | 1,632$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.