Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea893b294e65ff74948912dd6d931e435905665bb68bbe97ff832a15a541f894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $280,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 1c | 19,291$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.03 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1998…16efbacked Yes | 36c | 11,055$3,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,076.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…0a56backed No | 0c | 9,719$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 61c | 9,575$5,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,860.99 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed No | 75c | 7,716$5,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,760.76 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,269$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…e07abacked No | 29c | 6,514$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb643…ff28backed No | 0c | 5,580$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 32c | 4,886$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,343.14 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 28c | 4,290$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.68 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…dcfabacked No | 1c | 3,818$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe125…f1acbacked No | 1c | 3,693$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 64c | 3,545$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.61 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed No | 71c | 3,445$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 29c | 3,141$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.13 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247a…e991backed Yes | 35c | 3,029$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.29 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…7c49backed Yes | 32c | 2,915$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked No | 34c | 2,910$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 64c | 2,865$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.09 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363f…14b6backed No | 1c | 2,449$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed No | 1c | 2,261$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 33c | 2,025$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.82 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed No | 24c | 2,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +321.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…a065backed No | 1c | 1,940$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed No | 42c | 1,784$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 46c | 1,769$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.62 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 34c | 1,750$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,689$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…2090backed Yes | 39c | 1,678$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 63c | 1,637$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.2 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 2c | 1,600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…e3e3backed No | 65c | 1,533$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 29c | 1,526$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,520$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.37 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…cd4bbacked No | 3c | 1,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 7cpaid | +811.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…baacbacked Yes | 37c | 1,462$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 67c | 1,460$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.45 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 25c | 1,375$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed No | 13c | 1,364$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 44c | 1,340$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.77 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 27c | 1,173$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.26 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked No | 58c | 1,144$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 77c | 1,039$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.96 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…9e85backed Yes | 31c | 1,031$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 68c | 1,024$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…a188backed Yes | 36c | 991.28$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 67c | 978.95$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.06 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…f382backed Yes | 31c | 974.65$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.79 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…0366backed Yes | 37c | 922.88$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed No | 59c | 911.42$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 33c | 904.17$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.25 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 43c | 893.34$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.44 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 30c | 838.49$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.35 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 33c | 830.03$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.71 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…10c4backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…3d9cbacked Yes | 28c | 783.29$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.27 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 75c | 767.27$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.28 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 67c | 750$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed No | 20c | 750$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…11eebacked No | 41c | 745.24$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked No | 63c | 729.98$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.28 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…7c42backed No | 44c | 722.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 27c | 679.45$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.74 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…a135backed Yes | 33c | 679.41$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2af…227cbacked Yes | 30c | 674.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8176…156dbacked Yes | 34c | 656.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed No | 52c | 650.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…d9e0backed Yes | 30c | 649.13$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…941abacked Yes | 32c | 639.62$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 589.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…9c4abacked Yes | 28c | 576.09$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked No | 59c | 570$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 73c | 539.21$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.02 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 532.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 76c | 525.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 57c | 525.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f2…2599backed No | 32c | 514.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 28c | 503.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.87 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5b1fbacked Yes | 42c | 501.55$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes | 32c | 469.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 41c | 461.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.36 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 22c | 455.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 454.54$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.41 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…badcbacked No | 73c | 450.33$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 450$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 43c | 442.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 22c | 442.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.97 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 33c | 421.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.26 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 33c | 415.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.15 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…d9f9backed No | 73c | 411.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 38c | 403.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 22c | 402$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.4 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…7169backed Yes | 33c | 400.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.96 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…d7eebacked No | 17c | 400.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…9a5ebacked No | 37c | 393.07$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 25c | 392.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 33c | 391.27$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.27 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.