Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x954cd931ef95d7c7429655ef8c5fb6628a15cafcafa16b5d6058fb714dd27252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf5…a7fbbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed No | 1c | 35,594$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…c4a9backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…51a0backed No | 0c | 4,646$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +908.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…1d5ebacked No | 0c | 4,533$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 1c | 4,467$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…d37abacked No | 1c | 3,542$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 80c | 3,143$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.4 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd1…0237backed No | 1c | 2,954$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed No | 1c | 2,798$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 13c | 2,306$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.77 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 1,807$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…adeebacked No | 5c | 1,010$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 29c | 881$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 2c | 814.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 70c | 808$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 28c | 696.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.57 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked Yes | 30c | 682$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed No | 4c | 625.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 21c | 592.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 71c | 455$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.05 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 34c | 447.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.27 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 8c | 422.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 71c | 413$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.23 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 58c | 396.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 393$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.02 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 51c | 388.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.48 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…c95abacked No | 78c | 364.46$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…eed8backed No | 15c | 360$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked No | 78c | 358.64$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 71c | 326$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 29c | 326$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffce…e88bbacked Yes | 33c | 306.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…5c81backed No | 6c | 280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 30c | 270.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.21 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…1b1ebacked No | 58c | 246.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 23c | 237.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.47 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 197.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 194.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 193$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 67c | 169.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 74c | 161.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 161.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…340bbacked No | 79c | 155.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…9621backed No | 69c | 143.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f9…9126backed Yes | 22c | 138.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…8928backed Yes | 48c | 132.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…7957backed No | 80c | 123.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 18c | 116$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…73cebacked Yes | 34c | 106.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…64a9backed Yes | 19c | 102.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…79abbacked No | 78c | 101.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…cd4bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 7cpaid | +811.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…b42bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +310.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 94.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 27c | 94.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 92.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 15c | 76.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 69.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…b4fabacked No | 72c | 69.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b8…329bbacked Yes | 22c | 65.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 63.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 42c | 58.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…9f6abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…f974backed No | 74c | 40.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…39babacked Yes | 50c | 40.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…fb30backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…c690backed No | 31c | 37.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…9c79backed No | 74c | 33.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -8.0wins | -0.50per pick | 68cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…378fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…741bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…3a8dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…4865backed No | 72c | 29.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…8aeebacked No | 72c | 27.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 27.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfe…1673backed No | 78c | 27.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.