Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd76670940a7057f9d8458eb72028fefca6477420927a0dbe4cde8ae8197936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac3c…d637backed No | 55c | 21,700$11,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,935 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…faf1backed Yes | 45c | 21,700$9,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,935 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…fc21backed Yes | 73c | 13,134$9,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,580.29 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a36…3a41backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 27c | 9,591$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.66 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed No | 1c | 9,038$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493f…eee8backed No | 1c | 7,251$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…6a93backed No | 36c | 4,512$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…196abacked Yes | 78c | 4,500$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 73c | 3,896$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.2 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 73c | 3,492$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.96 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 62c | 3,180$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.05 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 16c | 2,624$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.84 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfefd…1ee2backed No | 16c | 2,442$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 62c | 2,388$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.86 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 47c | 2,200$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.99 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 72c | 2,165$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.36 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 59c | 2,045$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.94 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…722fbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +1,203.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 63c | 1,998$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.62 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…ebc3backed No | 42c | 1,993$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.74 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 61c | 1,900$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 65c | 1,879$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.54 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bca…53dcbacked No | 7c | 1,732$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 42c | 1,624$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…933bbacked No | 26c | 1,621$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 68c | 1,500$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.55 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54da…3cacbacked No | 39c | 1,462$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 74c | 1,329$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.63 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,275$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.97 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 42c | 1,229$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 13c | 1,223$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 1,200$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.38 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…030bbacked Yes | 66c | 1,146$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…66a0backed Yes | 65c | 1,128$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.93 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed No | 4c | 1,107$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 69c | 1,101$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,093$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 42c | 1,062$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 42c | 1,019$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 58c | 955$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 942.23$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.81 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked Yes | 58c | 936$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed No | 20c | 919.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…086fbacked Yes | 55c | 910.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 28c | 891.91$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.57 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e8…e47ebacked No | 1c | 890.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 42c | 888$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…6a0abacked No | 43c | 865.82$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…31f4backed No | 2c | 860.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 42c | 835$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed No | 44c | 827.57$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.1 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 42c | 826$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 61c | 818.17$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed Yes | 58c | 816$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 64c | 809.97$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.69 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed No | 19c | 800.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…530ebacked No | 41c | 749.97$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 42c | 740$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked No | 23c | 729.08$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 58c | 723$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…a13fbacked No | 22c | 715.68$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 58c | 692$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 56c | 690.25$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.34 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 39c | 675$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed No | 24c | 673.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 42c | 673$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…f373backed No | 23c | 664.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…7c5fbacked No | 33c | 658.73$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35f…de26backed No | 19c | 649.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 58c | 637$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 70c | 633.92$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…9530backed No | 30c | 629.74$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd1…3fe2backed No | 19c | 625.31$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 624.08$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.37 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked No | 14c | 605.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 58c | 601.99$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…90d7backed No | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…e9e9backed No | 19c | 599.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 69c | 585.64$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.29 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…821fbacked No | 33c | 583.15$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 64c | 577.1$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 58c | 574$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 58c | 572$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Yes | 78c | 568.98$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 71c | 559.91$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 74c | 556.7$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.01 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…39b7backed No | 37c | 542.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Yes | 58c | 540$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked No | 37c | 539.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 40c | 526.48$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 42c | 526$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 58c | 514$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 58c | 513$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 58c | 506$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8840backed No | 32c | 503.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 67c | 499.99$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…3bd3backed No | 22c | 499.76$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.