Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd85c95ec588328b060a9ecb4710b03c482143f0cb54934b8bec9baf826de7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf5…a7fbbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc7…749fbacked No | 2c | 3,030$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 2,983$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…1f82backed No | 2c | 1,982$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 1,566$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7642…422dbacked No | 37c | 1,432$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…8a9bbacked No | 1c | 1,087$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2c…f319backed No | 2c | 1,023$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…22a9backed No | 4c | 897.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 13c | 804.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…d9b0backed No | 74c | 775.05$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.13 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…c4a9backed No | 2c | 769.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 28c | 559.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.59 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 24c | 474.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.84 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e283backed No | 3c | 419.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 3c | 367.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked No | 7c | 353.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…4ce5backed No | 9c | 344.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Yes | 32c | 308.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b2…a645backed No | 67c | 298.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 76c | 291.19$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 204.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9da…7979backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 142.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 33c | 137.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…61f4backed No | 67c | 136.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 30c | 136.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 74c | 128.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…bbe8backed No | 79c | 127.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…b562backed No | 62c | 107.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +296.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…0f73backed No | 58c | 106.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…cd4bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 7cpaid | +811.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…af70backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 26c | 90.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 87.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 72c | 85.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 26c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 75.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…1b1ebacked No | 72c | 55.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 53.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 28c | 53.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…f974backed No | 76c | 52.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked Yes | 26c | 50.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…78d8backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…6ef8backed Yes | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 49.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…341cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 27c | 43.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…741bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…79abbacked No | 59c | 34.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -8.0wins | -0.50per pick | 68cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…c5fdbacked Yes | 31c | 32.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…9b70backed Yes | 39c | 28.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…6693backed No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…adeebacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…5edfbacked No | 67c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.