Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33bf5883b98f30850297fb9491fa30ccab2c0a3aa626aecbf6548bc69b990745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43bd…c70ebacked No | 1c | 17,589$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…6e13backed No | 1c | 10,226$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…c115backed No | 0c | 4,450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…4a2dbacked No | 1c | 3,660$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…db98backed No | 0c | 3,472$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 8c | 3,250$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…eae5backed No | 1c | 3,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70d5…3a73backed Yes | 53c | 1,494$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 47c | 1,218$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 62c | 1,188$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…2216backed No | 6c | 1,130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 44c | 1,040$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.74 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked No | 47c | 1,011$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…5e40backed No | 54c | 923.72$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 38c | 849$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.62 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 53c | 829$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 58c | 811.44$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…93edbacked Yes | 53c | 756.86$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 53c | 732$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.04 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed No | 38c | 601$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…935dbacked No | 52c | 580.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 38c | 562$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 47c | 559$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 43c | 555.1$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 57c | 525.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.8 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 67c | 477.2$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 62c | 422$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…7b70backed No | 48c | 413.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 54c | 363$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed Yes | 63c | 353.59$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 31c | 353.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 57c | 340.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 67c | 331.37$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 53c | 326$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 47c | 315$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 62c | 304$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed No | 38c | 300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 43c | 299.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 53c | 299$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed No | 47c | 299$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked No | 10c | 272.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 73c | 260.56$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 62c | 258$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 62c | 252$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 39c | 242.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…0a40backed No | 42c | 236.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed Yes | 69c | 234.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 63c | 229.37$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 228.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 35c | 222$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 38c | 221$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed No | 47c | 212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…7536backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 52c | 199.09$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 62c | 194.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 38c | 194$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b0…7f24backed Yes | 52c | 191.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 54c | 177.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 176.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…ed49backed Yes | 59c | 169.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…9420backed Yes | 58c | 167.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 51c | 165.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 15c | 153.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 42c | 147.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…c78abacked No | 42c | 146.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 38c | 145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 127.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Yes | 60c | 127$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…73d3backed No | 49c | 122.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 118.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…15a1backed No | 42c | 118.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 38c | 117.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0290…0a61backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…63f8backed No | 40c | 114.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 114.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 40c | 113.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 55c | 113.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed No | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed No | 40c | 111.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 40c | 111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 40c | 109.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 101.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1de0…a5adbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…efcabacked Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…18b4backed No | 43c | 99.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…8a91backed Yes | 61c | 98.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…f895backed No | 61c | 98.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 65c | 92.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.