TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0f9b…8a91

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.99
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$62.22
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.71
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$133.02
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+48.6%+$258.09
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+352.1%+$147.9
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+139%+$347.45
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.14
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$52.7
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+163.2%+$48.95
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50.5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+119.1%+$46.48
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$97.35
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+103.1%+$51.57
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+64.7%+$38.83
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+33.1%+$59.74
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+182.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+166.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+270.4%+$40.56
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+62.7%+$68.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$83.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$201.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.