Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b23bacad9fd2678e8f19fa6ad3b007d9cdee9d872742743ea1bfc68cebfb42b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $429,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,262 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 23c | 50,958$11,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,511.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 5c | 30,876$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.71 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cca…7160backed Yes | 2c | 28,009$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 26,102$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…27dcbacked Yes | 1c | 23,358$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…fc41backed Yes | 8c | 22,952$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 0c | 19,673$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…4784backed Yes | 0c | 19,034$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed No | 61c | 15,968$9,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,277.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 6c | 15,500$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.82 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd8…8e08backed Yes | 6c | 15,086$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…6a89backed Yes | 8c | 14,267$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,996$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 12c | 12,569$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,783$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…3849backed Yes | 5c | 10,002$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 9,906$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 3c | 9,835$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.85 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 79c | 9,569$7,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.48 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x605f…2ab6backed Yes | 1c | 8,497$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…da86backed Yes | 19c | 7,982$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 25c | 7,335$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…a8aabacked Yes | 1c | 6,952$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 5,940$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.11 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 5,912$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…fcc4backed Yes | 5c | 5,793$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.79 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 5,744$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 15c | 5,400$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.79 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f2a3backed Yes | 1c | 5,368$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +330.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…24b5backed Yes | 9c | 4,749$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 10c | 4,512$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 1c | 4,127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…d9ecbacked Yes | 8c | 3,751$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 3,388$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.58 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 15c | 3,272$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,223$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 3,053$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…8275backed Yes | 3c | 3,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,877$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,700$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,410$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…9a34backed Yes | 13c | 2,315$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…878abacked Yes | 2c | 2,280$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…462bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,068$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…b2e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,062$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…bd12backed Yes | 1c | 2,034$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 2c | 2,032$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 1c | 1,983$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1059…e92dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,955$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 75c | 1,910$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.6 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 1,869$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed Yes | 18c | 1,600$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 8c | 1,550$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…0947backed Yes | 4c | 1,397$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 1,375$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,353$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.94 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…d631backed Yes | 12c | 1,311$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…049cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,292$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…7d75backed Yes | 4c | 1,292$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 80c | 1,285$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…c866backed Yes | 1c | 1,254$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 22c | 1,222$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…57afbacked Yes | 18c | 1,171$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 28c | 1,157$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.79 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 14c | 1,061$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc024…d73abacked Yes | 2c | 1,057$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 32c | 999.97$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4803…6febbacked Yes | 2c | 994.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…e891backed Yes | 36c | 974.92$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 57c | 971.44$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.11 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc22…613dbacked Yes | 10c | 965.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 949.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…abf6backed Yes | 4c | 912.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 47c | 883.59$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed Yes | 16c | 882.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 75c | 850.81$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.24 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 2c | 814.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 51c | 790.64$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…8a91backed No | 67c | 789.09$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.09 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…7005backed Yes | 40c | 756.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…9b1dbacked Yes | 3c | 748.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked No | 67c | 710.99$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 78c | 708$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…20c1backed Yes | 4c | 668.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…b8dfbacked Yes | 16c | 619.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…5e23backed Yes | 12c | 613.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4752…5cb4backed Yes | 17c | 580.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 579.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f5…998dbacked Yes | 18c | 579.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 78c | 455.48$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.55 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…2398backed Yes | 8c | 437.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…fbe5backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 40c | 385.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.43 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…488dbacked Yes | 5c | 383.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.