Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d5f732ef77ce7fbf16574fb3a0bbd97d9ae50de3d5426f68dcd9788407bcc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x363b…dd08backed No | 1c | 13,462$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +2,934.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 13,457$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.43 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…d8efbacked No | 0c | 10,503$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +273.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed No | 1c | 6,539$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2152…71f2backed No | 6c | 6,056$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…5778backed No | 2c | 5,064$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,705$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 3,936$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078b…7e2fbacked No | 2c | 3,423$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 2c | 3,300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…3e15backed No | 3c | 3,212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked No | 2c | 3,002$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 18c | 2,956$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.75 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 2,854$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 2,592$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…b8c9backed No | 2c | 2,501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 2,475$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,361$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 1c | 2,199$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…792dbacked No | 2c | 1,648$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 78c | 1,600$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.12 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked No | 1c | 1,550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed No | 1c | 1,443$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 3c | 1,434$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 43c | 1,381$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 3c | 1,269$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 1,250$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.29 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 1,245$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 1,213$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 2c | 1,190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed No | 5c | 1,145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 2c | 1,104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…2f74backed No | 2c | 1,062$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…4485backed No | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 57c | 1,011$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…5968backed No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 1c | 910$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…57afbacked No | 2c | 894.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c3d3backed No | 5c | 889.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked No | 4c | 688.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked No | 5c | 611.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…40c1backed No | 3c | 611.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4176…8af1backed No | 3c | 579.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4797…6990backed No | 5c | 532.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…049cbacked No | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…6e00backed No | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 2c | 524.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 493.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed No | 15c | 467.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 7c | 423.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked No | 4c | 410$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…7d6bbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed No | 5c | 399.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1647…4c4ebacked No | 5c | 394.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…4e40backed No | 6c | 380$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…f762backed No | 34c | 355.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed No | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…3398backed No | 9c | 348.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked No | 6c | 340.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed No | 6c | 334.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…d7c0backed No | 25c | 321.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…1449backed No | 3c | 319.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +77%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 57c | 318$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd71…d70dbacked No | 63c | 316.92$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 300.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 17c | 299.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 8c | 299.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa6…e8b6backed No | 4c | 270.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…3128backed No | 4c | 264.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35d…1007backed No | 4c | 250.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…ebb0backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 241.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 8c | 237.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 77c | 225$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…81ebbacked No | 5c | 223.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed No | 14c | 216.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 7c | 212.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 42c | 210$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 58c | 210$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…05febacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…c352backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 12c | 195.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 14c | 190$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 53c | 189.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked No | 8c | 178.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 10c | 148.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…452ebacked No | 11c | 142.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 23c | 130.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d6…3ae3backed No | 13c | 113.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…156cbacked Yes | 76c | 105.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…65f1backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 17c | 86.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.