Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4dad89592d2dbff3f2e0148e22c7925b7b99676aadedbb57e4176646bd97c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,122 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 1,921$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 1,686$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 1,010$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 977$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 542.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 9c | 523$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 477.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 10c | 452$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 426.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…bf24backed No | 3c | 327.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…ebb0backed No | 17c | 289.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…19abbacked No | 7c | 207.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…d8efbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +273.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…edfabacked No | 15c | 197.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…116fbacked No | 13c | 149.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 22c | 121.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…c190backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…2a39backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 21c | 98.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…5bf7backed Yes | 70c | 87.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…8722backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…6a5ebacked No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked Yes | 74c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…8f2cbacked Yes | 56c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…81e6backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.