Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff27e0369941f5cc819cf93006921312c584407e995ac986565a0e46833a07d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,885$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 1c | 2,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 5c | 1,704$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 5c | 1,546$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 46c | 1,414$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 3c | 1,078$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…0b80backed No | 2c | 905.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 829.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…e8dfbacked Yes | 53c | 658.24$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 54c | 636$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x830c…3377backed No | 2c | 629.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 54c | 618$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 54c | 613$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 46c | 571$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 538.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked Yes | 73c | 537.52$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0225…6d1dbacked No | 65c | 536.09$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…b131backed No | 10c | 497.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 46c | 465$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd377…e188backed No | 4c | 448$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 54c | 434$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…88ffbacked No | 5c | 400.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…dc0abacked No | 13c | 397.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 54c | 367$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…62c0backed No | 3c | 312$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 303.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddc…6f13backed No | 4c | 294.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 77c | 258.39$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 249.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…edb5backed No | 62c | 242.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 44c | 241.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 221.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…8839backed Yes | 63c | 220.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 36c | 218.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.77 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff4…9cdcbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked Yes | 44c | 186$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…a923backed No | 60c | 184.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…d7c0backed No | 8c | 173.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 46c | 171$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 60c | 166.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 70c | 161.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 30c | 158.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 63c | 158.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…093bbacked No | 60c | 151.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…d501backed No | 57c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…a2e7backed No | 62c | 140.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e0…e89fbacked No | 50c | 139.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd5…ec5ebacked Yes | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…d2a7backed No | 15c | 135.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408b…8f1bbacked No | 9c | 135.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +299.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 126.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b7…145cbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…a8ffbacked No | 49c | 110.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…fe24backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…8f2cbacked Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 109.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…452ebacked No | 57c | 104.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 50c | 99.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a11…be4abacked Yes | 50c | 99.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 75c | 99.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 36c | 97.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 25c | 94.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…0e36backed No | 58c | 87.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 61c | 83.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…5ed0backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 76.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 35c | 71.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…e08abacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…6604backed Yes | 50c | 69.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…b89cbacked No | 55c | 59.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 65c | 58.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…e5d1backed Yes | 43c | 55.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b37…8722backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…f6fabacked No | 58c | 51.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…6ae4backed No | 60c | 50.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…5616backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked No | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -11.4wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…145abacked No | 36c | 47.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 27c | 45.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…cbc0backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…5712backed No | 48c | 43.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…4784backed No | 49c | 41.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…5609backed No | 60c | 40.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa786…d81dbacked Yes | 63c | 39.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2c2abacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…8e18backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 32c | 32.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…9c0ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d6…3ae3backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.