Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x291f0f6023efa933d36cc80fd55f9d176309a92b61b9567fd4f044a8b21873fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,085,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,613,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,085,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,485 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 79c | 516,873$409,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409,288.53 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 12c | 195,163$24,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171,110.05 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 15c | 109,192$16,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,917.81 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 19c | 92,107$17,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,209.73 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 16c | 82,837$13,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,437.82 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 79c | 70,556$55,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,959.99 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 70,398$10,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,825.42 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 80c | 68,660$54,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,927.66 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…71cbbacked Yes | 13c | 61,579$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,328.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 12cpaid | +277.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 53,489$17,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,561.36 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 26c | 49,579$12,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,738.42 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 11c | 47,483$5,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,069.33 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…8ad2backed Yes | 20c | 43,547$8,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,038.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +610.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…f5e8backed Yes | 20c | 39,325$7,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,460.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +1,920%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…8260backed Yes | 20c | 39,281$7,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,424.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 6cpaid | +1,408.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed Yes | 13c | 39,187$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,937.28 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 16c | 37,920$6,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,832.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 25c | 36,364$9,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,328.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 19c | 35,294$6,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,499.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 18c | 35,043$6,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,861.29 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked No | 0c | 34,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 34c | 32,690$11,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,485.5 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 17c | 32,366$5,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,893.06 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…7314backed No | 1c | 30,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa130…05dcbacked Yes | 17c | 29,538$4,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,640.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 8cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…0616backed Yes | 14c | 27,346$3,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,434.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…cbffbacked Yes | 21c | 26,212$5,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,735.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 10cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 25,609$4,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,723.49 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 16c | 24,638$3,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,803.35 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed No | 18c | 24,256$4,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,348.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 10c | 22,896$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,539.08 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 22c | 21,079$4,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,354.63 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 14c | 20,842$2,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,996.25 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 16c | 20,547$3,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,190.51 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,399.66 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…aeb9backed Yes | 41c | 19,566$8,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,481.74 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 24c | 19,304$4,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,731.38 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 14c | 18,716$2,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,040.58 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…ab0ebacked Yes | 14c | 18,304$2,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,741.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.57per pick | 31cpaid | +264.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 80c | 18,248$14,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,569.95 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 0c | 18,155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 12c | 18,083$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,916.66 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0e…7d78backed No | 0c | 18,026$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 46c | 17,912$8,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,708.85 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 18c | 16,436$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,435.53 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 15c | 16,185$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,709.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…fd66backed Yes | 23c | 15,776$3,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,088.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +199.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 26c | 15,606$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,487.82 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…d004backed Yes | 19c | 15,517$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,587.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…a4c6backed Yes | 13c | 15,372$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,403.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +681%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 42c | 15,340$6,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,912.63 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 14,013$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,486.12 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe71a…66ebbacked Yes | 39c | 13,700$5,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,357 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…8419backed No | 61c | 13,700$8,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,357 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 24c | 13,543$3,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,318.56 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c7…b007backed Yes | 12c | 13,503$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,884.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +335.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed No | 2c | 13,211$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8517…2ce5backed Yes | 24c | 13,130$3,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,978.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +925.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 77c | 12,835$9,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,929.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 57c | 12,270$6,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,955.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 12,265$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,822.12 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…0d19backed Yes | 18c | 12,264$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,076.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 12,096$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,468.29 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e44…4d4abacked Yes | 22c | 12,009$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,320.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +330.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd36f…6d48backed Yes | 20c | 11,911$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,539.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +393.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc171…4b4fbacked Yes | 12c | 11,833$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,397.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 7cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes | 19c | 10,749$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,690.9 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 76c | 10,560$7,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,976.19 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 76c | 10,517$8,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,028.27 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…7ae7backed Yes | 26c | 10,359$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,656.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +255.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 23c | 10,238$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,839.74 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x42c6…9364backed Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,149.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +312.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 11c | 9,703$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,635.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f0…fa57backed Yes | 18c | 9,567$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,867.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8f85backed No | 56c | 9,212$5,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,158.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 18c | 9,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,419.79 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…37a4backed Yes | 39c | 8,930$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,460.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 18c | 8,895$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,308.78 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 56c | 8,788$4,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,882.64 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 44c | 8,512$3,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,766.75 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 18c | 8,496$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,936.92 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 13c | 8,336$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,252.59 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…ad9dbacked No | 75c | 8,222$6,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,184.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 12c | 8,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,039.99 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed Yes | 20c | 7,966$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,396.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…379abacked Yes | 17c | 7,769$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,420.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3179…8c2abacked Yes | 23c | 7,516$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,797.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 20c | 7,263$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,803.29 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…e30fbacked Yes | 13c | 7,195$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,287.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 17c | 7,111$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,907.43 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Yes | 13c | 7,050$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,110.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +284.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…8591backed Yes | 31c | 7,025$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,827.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 10cpaid | +873.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 76c | 7,000$5,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,289.99 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…1fedbacked Yes | 64c | 6,971$4,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 18c | 6,909$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,665.7 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6c…7195backed Yes | 17c | 6,850$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,706.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed No | 76c | 6,836$5,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,204.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69e…b92abacked Yes | 25c | 6,793$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,102.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 28c | 6,715$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,814.98 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 48c | 6,688$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,188.46 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.