Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc3fd061267a264175e222ed643f6b9d958a2627ad6c631290838de3895c118f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24e4…0c32backed Yes | 8c | 6,275$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed Yes | 46c | 6,125$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,793.77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…eb6dbacked No | 66c | 6,013$3,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 20c | 5,874$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.03 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,260$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 4,720$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.55 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 77c | 4,324$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.89 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 38c | 4,252$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.16 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…098abacked Yes | 52c | 4,004$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.13 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 24c | 2,665$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 67c | 2,526$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.71 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,313$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.55 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,960$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.64 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,943$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,889$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked No | 64c | 1,886$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed Yes | 2c | 1,671$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…fe46backed Yes | 75c | 1,611$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,600$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 38c | 1,600$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 15c | 1,491$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.48 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…9d88backed Yes | 1c | 1,459$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,440$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 55c | 1,422$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.52 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,422$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,379$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Yes | 39c | 1,347$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.31 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 8c | 1,344$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…5afdbacked Yes | 56c | 1,318$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,306$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,303$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 1,280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed No | 42c | 1,177$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…986bbacked No | 73c | 1,085$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 1,049$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.88 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 35c | 1,000$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.46 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 51c | 992.98$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.34 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 992.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…3572backed No | 47c | 952.52$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 920.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed Yes | 53c | 880$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 36c | 866.62$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.85 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 4c | 851.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 4c | 843.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…9640backed No | 42c | 840$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 27c | 820$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 48c | 799$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 782.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed No | 65c | 763.75$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 53c | 759$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 749.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 64c | 732$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 47c | 704$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 71c | 702.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 53c | 702.2$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.69 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 3c | 701.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 6c | 696$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed No | 64c | 688.65$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 6c | 667.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 48c | 625.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…be31backed Yes | 44c | 623.19$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bca…53dcbacked No | 33c | 612.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 12c | 599.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 584.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 574.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 23c | 559.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 20c | 547.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…d210backed No | 54c | 540.2$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…6781backed No | 43c | 539.53$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 45c | 521.73$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.25 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 31c | 511.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 8c | 499.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7a80backed No | 52c | 483.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 68c | 472.36$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 56c | 470.23$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.33 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x03b0…482cbacked No | 71c | 470.05$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed No | 39c | 463.98$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.44 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 61c | 461.92$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 36c | 448$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed No | 60c | 437.28$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 36c | 430$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 64c | 430$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed No | 47c | 425.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 47c | 419$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 417.87$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.08 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 50c | 403$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 401.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed No | 53c | 399.27$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 52c | 382.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.45 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 35c | 372.51$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed4…c624backed No | 77c | 372.05$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 67c | 371.42$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 59c | 368.66$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.85 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…52a6backed No | 66c | 366.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…9420backed Yes | 28c | 352.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.