Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e6ed8c4edf3ccbe2d8188d8238d6c3051de4bb2cdb5e50dfa94d6829db9bb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0451…b87abacked Yes | 8c | 32,079$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,647 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +1,330.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,095$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…111cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,713$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x181a…c85fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,784$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,579$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,351$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…edabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,204$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,061$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 5c | 2,883$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,859$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,293$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.34 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…b53cbacked Yes | 46c | 2,288$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 64c | 2,040$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,705$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,606$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 1,551$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,371$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 32c | 1,239$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 45c | 1,190$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.36 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 1,175$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc731…669cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,171$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…a699backed Yes | 60c | 1,087$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 31c | 1,032$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.08 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 60c | 1,027$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 49c | 1,027$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 31c | 997.59$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.1 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 39c | 908.49$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.59 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked Yes | 17c | 887.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 47c | 872$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 40c | 758$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 48c | 736$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 48c | 715$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 51c | 695.37$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.38 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ac…fc08backed Yes | 3c | 685.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 46c | 683$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 54c | 671$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 48c | 645$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 48c | 645$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 53c | 643$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.79 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4810…d688backed Yes | 2c | 638.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845f…c13bbacked No | 57c | 614.82$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 54c | 586$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed No | 69c | 577.02$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked Yes | 3c | 564.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 47c | 556$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 53c | 525$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 52c | 522$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 44c | 493$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.92 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 52c | 485$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 25c | 483.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.74 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 54c | 482$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 24c | 477.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 48c | 471$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 56c | 470$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 42c | 467.28$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.13 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 449.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 440.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.83 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 424.42$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…e80fbacked No | 50c | 400.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.91 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…f535backed No | 62c | 385.31$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 52c | 383$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 16c | 380.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes | 4c | 356.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 45c | 355.88$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 52c | 353$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 47c | 351.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.33 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…d83dbacked Yes | 66c | 347$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bc…405fbacked No | 66c | 327$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 47c | 314$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 54c | 300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 51c | 300$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 55c | 296$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes | 49c | 292.92$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 54c | 285.45$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed No | 73c | 285.01$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 55c | 274$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…a3e5backed Yes | 51c | 271.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 55c | 259.06$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e37…047bbacked No | 78c | 257.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 80c | 250.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 52c | 239$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 226.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 42c | 226.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 53c | 224$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 53c | 221.53$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 62c | 220$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 46c | 218.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.81 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 57c | 211$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked Yes | 24c | 206.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 49c | 202.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…9525backed Yes | 49c | 202.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 54c | 196$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…cd8bbacked No | 76c | 190.61$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…8bbabacked Yes | 56c | 179.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 56c | 178.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…192abacked Yes | 24c | 171.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.