TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,168
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,168 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes17c3,168$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.4456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes3c2,799$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.17226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes13c2,212$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.384511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes1c1,755$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,537$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.534928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes9c1,200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10316417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes51c1,069$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.737732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53eb…7d54backed No63c1,020$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.235354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c864.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.787135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes7c852.26$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4711818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes36c830.9$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.785731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…b2b5backed Yes5c753.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.262516%4 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes12c746.11$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.418129.6%24 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed No79c654.05$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4810742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No50c612.78$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.634560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes25c553.19$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5718833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No64c545.38$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.785429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c540.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.463717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes45c510.94$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.542272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No62c486.1$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.19942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No58c475$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.54242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed Yes42c475$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes32c446.38$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.313735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+96.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No53c414$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.581540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed Yes47c414$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.581136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560a…3b5cbacked Yes41c410.2$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e6…a02cbacked No56c408.95$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.92580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes40c382.67$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1546434.4%22 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes19c380.46$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1713440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0eb…e702backed No68c379.77$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed No55c362.33$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.331266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes11c353.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.365616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847c…9d31backed No48c349.99$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1816448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes41c343.78$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.928248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes5c328$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.745071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c319.56$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc731…669cbacked No61c319.54$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.351136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2865…2005backed No55c310.45$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.162161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa3a…e29abacked No67c299.93$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.932711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes48c294.56$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.93933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No52c280.32$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.985461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe624…8839backed Yes33c258.17$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.882133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351d…f762backed No61c245.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.821145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a1…ab45backed Yes49c244.39$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes15c232.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9431344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No68c228.7$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.776246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c77…8f06backed Yes43c225.13$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4252…4a6ebacked No67c223.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.372475%18 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes45c223.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e81…5599backed Yes39c220$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.45418.5%10 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes37c209.03$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.215151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick62cpaid+50.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes40c199.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes7c198.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4810246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No52c183.87$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2729254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5967…750dbacked No61c177.56$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.562250%11 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+45.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ebf…db9fbacked Yes45c176.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No59c174.39$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf567…b53cbacked Yes6c172.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3660%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No58c170$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes37c160.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x219a…5de0backed No64c160$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No53c155.87$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5726756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd12b…43a9backed No60c145.08$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.411136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No65c136.23$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.236445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c135.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6434234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba5c…8b52backed Yes9c134.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.293844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab15…7eacbacked Yes42c132.81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.196820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes8c130.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes39c129.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf25c…97a5backed No59c126.39$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.511040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba2…89cfbacked No61c118.69$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1427…145abacked No61c116.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.151764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes43c113.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+99.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes29c112.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.859942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes39c111.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x204e…2925backed No79c108.66$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes42c108.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes40c103.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7916433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3313138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x431c…4bbdbacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.051963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f9b…8a91backed Yes53c95.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fb1…3fbebacked No56c89.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.69683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick47cpaid+49.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc33a…671fbacked Yes41c89.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa5…e4d4backed No64c88.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes28c88.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.36per pick21cpaid+555.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes40c85.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.279353.8%50 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+34.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes37c84.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8412227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes38c83.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x252e…5212backed Yes45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.692931%9 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed Yes38c79.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.46855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe13b…c6fabacked No66c79.88$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.461353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes16c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes15c73.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1113228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe503…5260backed No62c70.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.97785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c70.86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa31a…a6aabacked No59c67.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.77771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e7b…7d59backed No60c66.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e4…9f09backed No72c65.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.393100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2283…35c4backed Yes32c63.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.