Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e75e837e140abc19c56504b037f74caef25437fcbe3f929859579de379fb6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 3,168$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.44 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,799$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 13c | 2,212$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.38 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 1,755$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,537$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,069$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.73 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 63c | 1,020$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.23 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 864.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 852.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 36c | 830.9$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.78 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…b2b5backed Yes | 5c | 753.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 12c | 746.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 79c | 654.05$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…fb20backed No | 50c | 612.78$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.63 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 25c | 553.19$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 64c | 545.38$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.78 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 540.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…20acbacked Yes | 45c | 510.94$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 62c | 486.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.1 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 58c | 475$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 42c | 475$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 32c | 446.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 53c | 414$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 47c | 414$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…3b5cbacked Yes | 41c | 410.2$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…a02cbacked No | 56c | 408.95$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…fb7dbacked Yes | 40c | 382.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 19c | 380.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0eb…e702backed No | 68c | 379.77$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed No | 55c | 362.33$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 11c | 353.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 48c | 349.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 41c | 343.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 5c | 328$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 319.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc731…669cbacked No | 61c | 319.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 55c | 310.45$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked No | 67c | 299.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 48c | 294.56$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 52c | 280.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…8839backed Yes | 33c | 258.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…f762backed No | 61c | 245.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed Yes | 49c | 244.39$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 15c | 232.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 68c | 228.7$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 43c | 225.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 67c | 223.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…6cbdbacked Yes | 45c | 223.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 39c | 220$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 37c | 209.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 7c | 198.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 52c | 183.87$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5967…750dbacked No | 61c | 177.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…db9fbacked Yes | 45c | 176.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…5d9bbacked No | 59c | 174.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…b53cbacked Yes | 6c | 172.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 58c | 170$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 37c | 160.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…5de0backed No | 64c | 160$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 53c | 155.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…43a9backed No | 60c | 145.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 65c | 136.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 135.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…8b52backed Yes | 9c | 134.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Yes | 42c | 132.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 8c | 130.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 39c | 129.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…97a5backed No | 59c | 126.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…89cfbacked No | 61c | 118.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…145abacked No | 61c | 116.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes | 43c | 113.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 29c | 112.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 111.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…2925backed No | 79c | 108.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 42c | 108.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 40c | 103.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…8a91backed Yes | 53c | 95.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…3fbebacked No | 56c | 89.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Yes | 41c | 89.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…e4d4backed No | 64c | 88.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 28c | 88.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 40c | 85.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 37c | 84.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 38c | 83.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x252e…5212backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…c6fabacked No | 66c | 79.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 15c | 73.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…5260backed No | 62c | 70.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 70.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…a6aabacked No | 59c | 67.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…7d59backed No | 60c | 66.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…9f09backed No | 72c | 65.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 32c | 63.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.