TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5967…750d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 57 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST2250%11 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+45.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+900%+$180
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+76.8%+$23.81
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$180
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+35.1%+$11.59
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$554Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$453.25
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+294.3%+$1,209.46
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+188.6%+$188.57
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$198
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$269
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.2%+$318.29
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$169.35
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+62.9%+$68.56
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+66.7%+$22
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$101
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+56.3%+$18.56
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+129.7%+$62.26
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$143
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 22 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$59.01
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$16.34
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$68.27
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$46.94
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+478.8%+$359.09
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+33.3%+$18.67
Will the USA Stripes team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$67
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+58.7%+$29.37
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$55.73
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+127.3%+$154
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 17 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+83.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+550.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+550.8%+$275.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+212.5%+$53.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+30%+$9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.