TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,522 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x805a…0635backed No5c22,225$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.086150.8%31 W · 30 L+16.6wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+158.1%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a1bbacked No53c18,000$9,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,54020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2602…0ff3backed Yes47c18,000$8,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked No10c6,267$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.48038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20fb…e5fabacked No36c4,751$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.61425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+353.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af9…c3e8backed No5c4,255$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.754812.5%6 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No7c4,078$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.966453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked No5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+65.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes72c3,737$2,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.056354%34 W · 29 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+59.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x71ee…28b7backed No36c1,672$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df7…f332backed No10c1,640$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.23633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No8c1,610$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6320130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c1,142$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.885510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked No50c1,109$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No4c1,088$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.654714.9%7 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c7…78a6backed Yes72c1,049$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.78580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…acdcbacked Yes76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No7c962.31$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.363842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9149…99c3backed No5c935.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No25c790.29$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1911841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes60c770$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0096…de43backed No5c760.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No5c704.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2111425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No28c603.11$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.894325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked No30c601$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.03825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed No6c590.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f2…5b0cbacked No45c568.83$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c566.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.612522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No23c471.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c435.39$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes53c386.78$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2219040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes67c348.68$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.746841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed No17c340.78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.022934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc04…ba96backed No30c338.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes73c326.99$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.497332.9%24 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes62c309.24$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1520544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd40…6582backed No5c307.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3970…dcc8backed No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No6c299.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b8bbbacked Yes67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5be6…1446backed No27c292.07$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes54c241.57$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa25e…0af9backed No32c236.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baf…57fdbacked No28c232.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes69c225.36$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.361154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5967…750dbacked No44c216.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9652…d0a0backed Yes67c216.31$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.421566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No17c210$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.33627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ca…7eddbacked No34c189.57$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb4f…7335backed Yes79c189.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe30…26d7backed No43c180.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No9c174.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…3377backed No62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd98b…c7ffbacked No33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c146.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f7b…492dbacked No7c145.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.18520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d90…9e5ebacked No60c140.38$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes66c138.26$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.911050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5faf…6694backed Yes44c123.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.481442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+633.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05f…742dbacked Yes77c117.45$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes75c107.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.29580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5f…6430backed Yes47c106.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2899…6ee3backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.12524%6 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-60.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x394e…23d2backed Yes44c99.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1a…16b7backed Yes71c98.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe865…3f63backed Yes42c98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed No56c89.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb557…ef84backed No36c84.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb8…6c31backed No60c83.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d8…333dbacked Yes60c77.08$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes58c73.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3911124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8fdf…d4dabacked Yes48c69.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No60c66.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes76c65.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dd…e40cbacked No37c65.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e8…78dfbacked Yes77c64.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.55580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No20c60.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.391421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick12cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6515…3d8ebacked No40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes66c56.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.031442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9435…e478backed No33c54.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d6…34d9backed No42c53.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad8…43e2backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e7…51acbacked No56c49.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.28742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.086434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes71c43.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7919834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed Yes68c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cdc…cb42backed No24c40.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ad…9e91backed No54c37.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3647…7c4ebacked No38c35.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba8…0ec2backed Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c7…54c0backed No34c32.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…dba8backed Yes64c31.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea26…08fdbacked Yes68c30.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd12c…30c4backed Yes66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.