AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe72beed6315ec53ef2db9e261d69e0b05d21b5eb1e06377f6dffd04dfaed654b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 5c | 22,225$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked No | 53c | 18,000$9,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed Yes | 47c | 18,000$8,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 10c | 6,267$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.4 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 36c | 4,751$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +353.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 5c | 4,255$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 7c | 4,078$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.96 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 72c | 3,737$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.05 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x71ee…28b7backed No | 36c | 1,672$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 10c | 1,640$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 8c | 1,610$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked No | 50c | 1,109$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 4c | 1,088$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…78a6backed Yes | 72c | 1,049$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…acdcbacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 7c | 962.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…99c3backed No | 5c | 935.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 25c | 790.29$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.19 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 60c | 770$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.9 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed No | 5c | 760.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 5c | 704.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 28c | 603.11$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 30c | 601$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 6c | 590.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…5b0cbacked No | 45c | 568.83$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 566.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 23c | 471.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 435.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 53c | 386.78$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 67c | 348.68$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 17c | 340.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…ba96backed No | 30c | 338.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 73c | 326.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 62c | 309.24$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…6582backed No | 5c | 307.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…dcc8backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 299.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…1446backed No | 27c | 292.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 241.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…0af9backed No | 32c | 236.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…57fdbacked No | 28c | 232.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes | 69c | 225.36$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5967…750dbacked No | 44c | 216.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Yes | 67c | 216.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…7eddbacked No | 34c | 189.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…7335backed Yes | 79c | 189.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…26d7backed No | 43c | 180.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 9c | 174.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98b…c7ffbacked No | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 146.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…492dbacked No | 7c | 145.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d90…9e5ebacked No | 60c | 140.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 66c | 138.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…6694backed Yes | 44c | 123.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +633.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked Yes | 77c | 117.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed Yes | 75c | 107.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…6430backed Yes | 47c | 106.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x394e…23d2backed Yes | 44c | 99.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…16b7backed Yes | 71c | 98.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…3f63backed Yes | 42c | 98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 56c | 89.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 36c | 84.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…6c31backed No | 60c | 83.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d8…333dbacked Yes | 60c | 77.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 73.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…d4dabacked Yes | 48c | 69.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 60c | 66.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 76c | 65.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…e40cbacked No | 37c | 65.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked Yes | 77c | 64.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 20c | 60.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…3d8ebacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 66c | 56.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed No | 33c | 54.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…34d9backed No | 42c | 53.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…51acbacked No | 56c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 71c | 43.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 24c | 40.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…7c4ebacked No | 38c | 35.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…0ec2backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c7…54c0backed No | 34c | 32.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Yes | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea26…08fdbacked Yes | 68c | 30.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12c…30c4backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?this page
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?No won
- Will Hallow: Prayer & Meditation be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.