TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$395,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6aee…fad4backed Yes18c38,923$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0003729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes7c31,013$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.443718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9707…e3bcbacked Yes13c26,736$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes13c17,289$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,236.8340448.3%195 W · 209 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes8c13,931$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.0939435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f6…15fbbacked Yes14c11,160$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6073030%9 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Yes11c9,421$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.393148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No76c8,106$6,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.451947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa6…a017backed Yes14c7,940$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5b…e58abacked Yes12c7,289$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.883026.7%8 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-46.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c7,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes9c6,754$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.5440133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes10c6,713$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6111447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes7c6,225$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.432,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes6c5,499$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4456945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yes10c5,400$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55014443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3c…759bbacked Yes14c5,209$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7369742.3%41 W · 56 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddaf…3de6backed Yes14c4,260$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.391566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes14c3,547$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7785742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes15c3,285$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.381,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ee…bf85backed Yes14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42020031%62 W · 138 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Yes14c2,802$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40038152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes15c2,506$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.3725840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes13c2,441$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.9912930.2%39 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes14c2,200$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.99939.4%39 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+12.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Yes12c1,797$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2614446.5%67 W · 77 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fef…cdcbbacked Yes12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ab…fd5fbacked Yes14c1,388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad9…7ad0backed Yes11c1,347$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.611520%3 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+138.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes12c1,338$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Yes20c1,311$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0148137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fcc…e74cbacked Yes13c1,297$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes9c1,280$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.011723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+116.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Yes11c1,168$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.656639.4%26 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes13c1,066$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3113642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked Yes15c1,039$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.831225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes13c1,015$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.965756.1%32 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db1…35a9backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes14c1,000$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4742348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6747…a64fbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5b…a891backed Yes13c999.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019432%62 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes16c914$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.923141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes15c899.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82c…dd71backed Yes15c825.47$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.032630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes14c799.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe445…a38ebacked Yes14c785.71$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102568%17 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes15c772.1$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.726820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ce…415fbacked Yes14c751.95$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.17616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x442a…f90cbacked Yes15c719.26$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-76.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5967…750dbacked Yes14c717.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccef…2de3backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4555…220cbacked Yes14c690.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes13c684.62$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210226.5%27 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc46e…c052backed Yes14c648.53$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906832.4%22 W · 46 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes13c618.49$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8315638.5%60 W · 96 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed Yes4c604.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.95185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…029abacked Yes18c603.27$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.984136.6%15 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Yes12c600$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756955.1%38 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes5c593.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2946426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x321f…af29backed Yes13c557.35$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.46520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617a…07f8backed Yes12c550$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f96…ad0fbacked Yes12c536.03$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2650%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9244…4b6ebacked Yes21c531.77$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.043240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552025%5 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf196…0906backed Yes4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb6…da3ebacked Yes17c493.55$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes15c482.81$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.842867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Yes13c469.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.995352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c425$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c4e…3d91backed Yes5c395.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205050%25 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x850e…08b3backed Yes15c389$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.351323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba1…e0b1backed Yes14c362.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes7c358.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…9f53backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb9…e983backed Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes6c351$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01422.4%1 W · 41 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked Yes11c350$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.74742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf85b…f67dbacked Yes4c348.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c343$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.241,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…d454backed Yes9c338.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+61.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd7d…332fbacked Yes26c307.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Yes11c304.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3315054%81 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes11c301.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.26378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03bd…b422backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4c…f22ebacked Yes13c299.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2164…a82bbacked Yes11c299.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336243.5%27 W · 35 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1010…fa57backed Yes15c299.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes5c290$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.938239.5%151 W · 231 L+35.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9541…b58ebacked Yes5c288.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510725.2%27 W · 80 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes12c279.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8120050.5%101 W · 99 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…5e79backed Yes9c278.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.351816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ec…8c8dbacked Yes14c270.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.916134.2%55 W · 106 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…eda9backed Yes16c259.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb42c…8fd3backed Yes12c259.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes14c252.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.151258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306238.7%24 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x729e…1a7abacked Yes14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x022c…926abacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…ed79backed Yes12c247.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.