TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Dallas Mavericks win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,037 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef9f…8924backed Yes0c27,165$54 inLost-$53.866619.7%13 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost-$21590%0 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ed…4beebacked Yes0c18,000$18 inLost-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58f…c88bbacked Yes0c17,937$18 inLost-$17.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445d…a6d6backed Yes0c17,780$18 inLost-$17.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e6…0657backed Yes0c17,770$18 inLost-$17.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes0c10,972$42 inLost-$42.2296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…9905backed Yes0c7,605$30 inLost-$30.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59f…01dfbacked Yes0c7,605$23 inLost-$22.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c6,719$18 inLost-$17.761,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,624$18 inLost-$17.58844.8%4 W · 80 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+489.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2534…41c9backed Yes2c2,100$33 inLost-$33.394520%9 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,066$13 inLost-$12.8260834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Yes1c1,896$20 inLost-$2067911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…a007backed Yes1c1,473$10 inLost-$10.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb14…f690backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost-$701811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid+124.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes1c988.71$11 inLost-$10.74238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a3…32d4backed Yes7c897.38$63 inLost-$63.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes2c587.65$11 inLost-$11.392722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdee3…9043backed Yes29c350$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff26…b20dbacked No75c100$75 inWon+$253154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No70c56.01$39 inWon+$16.840133.4%134 W · 267 L+27.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.