NBA · resolved market
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf55f41d078abb59c72557ed8cfaf16090bbf11422c03af7c42568e95624b23a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $405,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 79,213$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.78 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…3d75backed Yes | 0c | 26,774$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 147 | 38.1%56 W · 91 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde48…30e7backed Yes | 2c | 18,970$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.73 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 1c | 15,967$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 1c | 11,030$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 382 | 39.5%151 W · 231 L | +35.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…03fabacked Yes | 3c | 7,755$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9782…a4c0backed Yes | 3c | 7,755$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc89…b258backed Yes | 2c | 7,730$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…950ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,730$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 0c | 7,621$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,525$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,135$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 5,031$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,061$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,543$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,357$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,328$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 3c | 1,277$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…e651backed Yes | 2c | 1,217$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…68febacked Yes | 1c | 975$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc8…0e3dbacked Yes | 1c | 975$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…358dbacked Yes | 1c | 920$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 896.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 886.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 863.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 731.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 2c | 709.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 200 | 50.5%101 W · 99 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ba…bb9ebacked Yes | 2c | 598.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 3c | 502$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals?this page
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Yes won
- Will the Utah Jazz win the NBA Western Conference Finals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.