TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,596,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,779,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,596,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked No16c406,079$66,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,077.595016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked No13c302,656$38,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,797.770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f77…9da4backed No29c77,307$22,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,647.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No73c61,024$44,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,494.626145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c44,887$28,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,315.576726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae5b…0a8cbacked No12c40,721$4,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,795.822317.4%4 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+101.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No36c37,158$13,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,539.47943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c36,475$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes67c34,740$23,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,299.4514421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9531…9099backed Yes54c34,212$18,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,815.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No39c32,849$12,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,790.437032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2b…665abacked Yes69c23,916$16,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,525.14560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No29c23,784$6,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,831.735440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…0853backed Yes19c23,149$4,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,663.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+614.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c22,957$18,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,896.0145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes27c22,659$6,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,431.941136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f47…d66ebacked Yes78c21,714$16,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,734.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No16c19,819$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.033315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes41c19,119$7,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,219.6611723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa5…24a6backed Yes79c18,767$14,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,865.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+378.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes75c18,727$14,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,601.89839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1244…15dabacked No5c17,260$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.16812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd78…f597backed No2c14,522$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500e…79d4backed Yes80c14,096$11,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880.525100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3728…4288backed No24c13,988$3,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b60…a55bbacked Yes69c13,508$9,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,196.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No32c13,383$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.619525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xeae7…2800backed No18c13,333$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+107.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No5c12,764$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.78547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd311…61b4backed No7c12,172$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.7230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No19c11,569$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.951127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed No17c11,109$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.932722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No33c11,025$3,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,621.374012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No29c10,504$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.326439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…3477backed Yes54c10,490$5,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,807.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aba…9e7cbacked Yes48c10,452$4,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,485.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed Yes19c10,073$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,143.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+421.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No47c9,817$4,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,569.477448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c8…b9e6backed Yes79c9,000$7,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No73c8,815$6,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,464.921346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes11c8,697$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,749.22728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e9…e288backed Yes79c8,517$6,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes23c8,412$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,502.811650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes78c8,383$6,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.83837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No8c8,150$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes58c8,020$4,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,334.88241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed17…6498backed Yes67c8,000$5,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,604.98366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No37c8,000$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.9711425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes69c7,893$5,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.9147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No39c7,859$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.0419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe57a…e196backed Yes63c7,488$4,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,773.87757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes79c7,241$5,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.684360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x138b…0467backed No31c6,568$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No45c6,551$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.062045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b36…92b1backed Yes43c6,537$2,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,695.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No17c6,276$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.163946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No15c6,216$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.824259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacce…9ffdbacked Yes22c6,181$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,840.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+361.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c6,100$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.054736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes51c5,965$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.5619432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No12c5,953$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.374818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9330…5b57backed Yes10c5,902$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,297.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+387.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4173…1eecbacked No10c5,808$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No40c5,739$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.1717824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x102f…7a56backed Yes12c5,555$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+744.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No13c5,549$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.58923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked No10c5,502$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No48c5,366$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,595.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8792…4174backed Yes68c5,166$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5667…bb43backed Yes17c5,067$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,196.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No8c5,010$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x844e…4f41backed No18c5,000$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Yes66c4,780$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06e…f56fbacked No12c4,725$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.7850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes75c4,700$3,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.991553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes59c4,693$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.163116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb976…5876backed Yes77c4,567$3,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e4…4d33backed Yes15c4,504$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,818.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c4,496$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.417538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes21c4,428$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.931741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes9c4,400$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,009.52850%4 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+224.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes70c4,400$3,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a7c…1dc7backed Yes70c4,385$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes68c4,272$2,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed Yes75c4,246$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed Yes79c4,158$3,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.72524%6 W · 19 L-8.3wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-67%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x38d0…5d22backed No23c4,149$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes40c4,128$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,458.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-58.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes9c4,000$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,622.231827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No22c3,999$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.877020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No39c3,974$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.444946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No44c3,943$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.055554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba7…a833backed Yes75c3,875$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa2b…db24backed Yes4c3,805$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,656.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+1,179.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe807…4d35backed Yes74c3,764$2,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.46650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2157…3349backed Yes56c3,590$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca29…287fbacked Yes19c3,500$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.991060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No35c3,462$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.949041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed Yes76c3,400$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8082055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x415a…7577backed Yes73c3,354$2,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.