TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,980,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,685,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,980,181 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 854 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9531…9099backed Yes2c91,891$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,248.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes19c80,433$15,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,515.7114421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Yes24c64,956$15,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,577.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No25c57,664$14,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,012.36145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c45,100$14,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,504.616726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bc0…0f2abacked No14c39,683$5,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,083.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+502.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes15c36,581$5,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,386.752722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes60c34,450$20,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,603.6440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c30,036$18,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,849.347032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes18c29,664$5,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,335.335016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…0853backed No11c27,340$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,344.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+614.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c26,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes43c25,911$11,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,028.0919432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2b…665abacked Yes67c25,816$17,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,413.27560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes9c23,526$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.3470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No73c22,568$16,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,080.765440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes1c22,245$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.824242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes4c21,414$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.459839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes56c20,711$11,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,662.9311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No66c19,872$13,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,732.287943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9330…5b57backed Yes6c18,146$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+387.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae5b…0a8cbacked No5c17,811$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,981.822317.4%4 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+101.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca29…287fbacked Yes16c17,500$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.111060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes19c16,403$3,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,106.331136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f0…fc65backed Yes19c16,302$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.27333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0458…92e9backed Yes19c15,292$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,920.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Yes24c12,693$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x277e…7d32backed Yes56c12,000$6,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,683.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67d5…becfbacked Yes0c11,865$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes10c11,772$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.32150%0 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c10,797$8,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,547.5846038.9%179 W · 281 L-31.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes41c10,471$4,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,253.6919818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c10,402$7,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,096.316439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes22c9,678$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c9,635$5,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,123.727448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No29c9,435$2,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,710.381346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes20c8,800$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.54250%0 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3afe…fd59backed Yes67c8,357$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,575.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f47…d66ebacked Yes61c8,112$4,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,932.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c7,900$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.016291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0855…f446backed Yes9c7,800$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No38c7,409$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,620.624012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No52c7,213$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.4917824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4aba…9e7cbacked Yes63c7,133$4,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,496.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes9c7,031$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.05128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…f597backed Yes7c7,003$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No75c6,971$5,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.663946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57be…e140backed Yes1c6,966$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcd…b8d2backed No17c6,698$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,585.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+502%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes20c6,692$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes17c6,677$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.85616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No56c6,558$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.822045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes11c6,298$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.01837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5667…bb43backed Yes63c6,192$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,920.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No67c6,089$4,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.284736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed17…6498backed Yes64c5,968$3,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,827.24366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No52c5,366$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes2c5,329$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.76230%0 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9e…c6e9backed Yes1c5,300$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes15c5,297$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.763925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes4c5,148$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.46283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…1eecbacked Yes10c5,089$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d8…76a7backed No52c5,040$2,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.25540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f83…643fbacked Yes3c5,021$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+238.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes9c4,614$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.741010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9e…ba88backed Yes45c4,456$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+189.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes11c4,348$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…1dc7backed Yes37c4,315$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes44c4,278$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.2440%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c4,200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.52003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ee…7030backed No13c4,161$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.885100%5 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+373.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes59c4,053$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3e…8af2backed Yes21c4,022$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa32f…28bcbacked Yes20c3,985$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b2…6f4abacked Yes19c3,964$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No54c3,946$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.323116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-65%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e84…8e88backed Yes75c3,907$2,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,947.67666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes25c3,843$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9591127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes20c3,817$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7653231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes13c3,653$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.42623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae67…7cc8backed No72c3,599$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd311…61b4backed Yes5c3,572$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.17230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes52c3,397$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No35c3,343$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1617538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e4…4d33backed Yes47c3,204$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.83633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked No14c3,178$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,724.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf4…f359backed No22c3,164$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4681100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes9c3,046$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…0b14backed Yes7c2,972$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.02119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a51…006ebacked Yes18c2,809$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes23c2,800$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.08560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+114.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No60c2,723$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.982650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd16b…36c0backed Yes60c2,668$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1d…1af6backed Yes16c2,556$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No59c2,523$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.26955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,521$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.191,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c2,481$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.938942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf6…cc47backed No73c2,475$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No80c2,449$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.988923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.