AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8495b57385dc69a16afc77d2a18f05d36bbbd7713462d8286b3fe94f385d2f6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,048,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $680,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,048,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c16…a981backed Yes | 2c | 197,890$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,465.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…61b4backed Yes | 1c | 135,970$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.72 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 61,795$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.11 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 0c | 61,610$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +238.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x690b…bd2cbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 34,970$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.19 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 0c | 32,540$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes | 2c | 31,522$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 1c | 15,300$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 13,538$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 4c | 13,357$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…e8f6backed Yes | 2c | 13,278$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 5c | 12,183$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.08 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…abbcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,509$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…49e6backed Yes | 3c | 10,485$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 4c | 10,292$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.65 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…92e9backed Yes | 12c | 9,323$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,701$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,384$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,806$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 3c | 6,576$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.53 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 5,800$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 4,804$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.56 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,776$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,580$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,568$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 1c | 4,478$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 1c | 4,188$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6c…b36abacked Yes | 2c | 3,847$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 1c | 3,526$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…69febacked Yes | 3c | 3,442$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a51…006ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,048$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,942$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,860$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,741$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…e710backed Yes | 1c | 2,663$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…cde3backed Yes | 5c | 2,584$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c55…a595backed Yes | 1c | 2,399$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…64a1backed Yes | 5c | 2,186$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…af90backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…b99bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,507$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 1,468$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…6ca3backed Yes | 6c | 1,175$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…735dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,168$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,133$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 5c | 1,072$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…ab24backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…9c94backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…4288backed Yes | 7c | 999.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 913.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 1c | 899.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc260…f379backed Yes | 5c | 897.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 3c | 821.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 3c | 579.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 9c | 539.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…ed40backed Yes | 2c | 509.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…03a5backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…4fafbacked Yes | 6c | 315.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…77d6backed Yes | 6c | 279.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…8b0ebacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f22…3f6cbacked Yes | 9c | 249.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 10c | 198.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.