TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$474,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8631…9a73backed Yes66c57,760$38,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,683.58549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No0c28,105$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes66c28,034$18,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,651.9324258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed No36c13,621$4,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,860.59933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e4…a4d5backed No0c13,293$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No12c13,232$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5811540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No37c12,897$4,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,748.7512547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes69c11,533$7,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,623.536647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed No30c9,848$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes78c9,636$7,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.824535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No34c9,277$3,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,155.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No33c9,000$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.333461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b92…1761backed Yes62c8,578$5,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,242.651580%12 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe229…c8b0backed No36c8,335$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes68c8,222$5,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,625.8314750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…4216backed Yes70c7,085$4,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.511060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No35c7,082$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.681553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No36c6,095$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.612552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No38c5,885$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.272737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58fe…dc22backed No36c5,809$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes75c5,766$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.477848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x607f…592cbacked Yes67c5,603$3,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed No37c5,143$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.183727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No28c5,045$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.5614456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd91a…f14bbacked No37c5,039$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.78560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+87%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed Yes72c4,619$3,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.172222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-66.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes69c4,407$3,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.068055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes74c4,369$3,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.672250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe247…29f6backed No1c4,337$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b6…3961backed No35c4,013$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.384736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245e…183cbacked No33c4,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9e…548bbacked Yes65c3,929$2,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcc…d87cbacked No34c3,406$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.671338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No9c3,000$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.97656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes60c2,857$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No41c2,811$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No30c2,778$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.6613230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No32c2,749$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.536357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x305c…1d82backed No39c2,676$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.741553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No30c2,635$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.923729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc87f…9c0cbacked No34c2,620$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No31c2,600$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7976450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No37c2,595$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.555563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…b57fbacked No28c2,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes68c2,500$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.972040%8 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No33c2,500$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.973461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc9…7e18backed Yes64c2,487$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes66c2,484$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.142050%10 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed Yes60c2,342$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed No30c2,300$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed No37c2,279$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.464447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No35c2,250$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7807548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed Yes70c2,201$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.623043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No32c2,146$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.6135341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked No28c2,032$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.822450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No13c2,010$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.91717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7602347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…c2ddbacked No50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No35c2,000$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6958224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f57…9b6cbacked No36c1,990$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7102944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No40c1,903$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.383759.5%22 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x143b…72bdbacked Yes54c1,891$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.064100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+136.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No9c1,776$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.844117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed14…bebcbacked No33c1,750$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5771464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcc7…3daebacked No14c1,733$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes68c1,625$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.9811839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6331…ba5bbacked Yes64c1,601$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No33c1,557$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.4311645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked No33c1,533$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes54c1,460$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.815029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked Yes60c1,460$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.154153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No38c1,415$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.983767.6%25 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No32c1,400$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45312830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c84…2c7ebacked No51c1,400$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.71656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4612…c279backed Yes59c1,383$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.681330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9503…b863backed Yes60c1,329$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes66c1,326$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.471963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No8c1,301$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.24235.7%15 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e93…353fbacked No39c1,296$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed No32c1,288$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.266442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No41c1,259$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0315855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes66c1,220$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.674060%24 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8d…31e4backed No42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.791136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed Yes69c1,166$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.381643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b09…e10fbacked Yes68c1,155$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No32c1,130$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.54247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1715…f5f7backed No41c1,125$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed No42c1,100$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…688ebacked No2c1,085$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes76c1,074$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.8539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes56c1,005$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.011145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3803943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No31c996.98$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.343161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No51c986.6$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.356030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e37…ff97backed Yes71c979.31$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.31650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee02…1d20backed No32c975.12$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed No34c970$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.35352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes54c955.58$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.941978.9%15 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+48.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked No15c936.19$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.777462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.