Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x100f4c96c8ffb376074a4d12bbc5b3c9c4ae77042319de11249096b6cbfbcefc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $498,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $474,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 66c | 57,760$38,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,683.5 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 0c | 28,105$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 66c | 28,034$18,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,651.93 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 36c | 13,621$4,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e4…a4d5backed No | 0c | 13,293$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 12c | 13,232$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 37c | 12,897$4,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,748.75 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 69c | 11,533$7,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,623.53 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 30c | 9,848$2,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,908.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 78c | 9,636$7,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.82 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 34c | 9,277$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 33c | 9,000$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.33 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 62c | 8,578$5,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.65 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…c8b0backed No | 36c | 8,335$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 68c | 8,222$5,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.83 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4216backed Yes | 70c | 7,085$4,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 35c | 7,082$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 36c | 6,095$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.61 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 38c | 5,885$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.27 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…dc22backed No | 36c | 5,809$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 75c | 5,766$4,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.47 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…592cbacked Yes | 67c | 5,603$3,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 37c | 5,143$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.18 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 28c | 5,045$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.56 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 37c | 5,039$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +87%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 72c | 4,619$3,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.17 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 69c | 4,407$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.06 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 74c | 4,369$3,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe247…29f6backed No | 1c | 4,337$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 35c | 4,013$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.38 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…183cbacked No | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…548bbacked Yes | 65c | 3,929$2,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 34c | 3,406$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 9c | 3,000$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.9 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes | 60c | 2,857$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 41c | 2,811$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 30c | 2,778$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.66 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 32c | 2,749$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.53 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 39c | 2,676$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 30c | 2,635$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.92 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…9c0cbacked No | 34c | 2,620$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 31c | 2,600$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 37c | 2,595$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.55 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…b57fbacked No | 28c | 2,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 68c | 2,500$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 33c | 2,500$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.97 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…7e18backed Yes | 64c | 2,487$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 66c | 2,484$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…d186backed Yes | 60c | 2,342$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed No | 30c | 2,300$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 37c | 2,279$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.46 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 35c | 2,250$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 70c | 2,201$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.62 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 32c | 2,146$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.61 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 28c | 2,032$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 13c | 2,010$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 35c | 2,000$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked No | 36c | 1,990$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 40c | 1,903$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x143b…72bdbacked Yes | 54c | 1,891$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 1,776$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 33c | 1,750$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…3daebacked No | 14c | 1,733$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 68c | 1,625$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.98 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6331…ba5bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,601$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 33c | 1,557$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.43 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked No | 33c | 1,533$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 54c | 1,460$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.8 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 60c | 1,460$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.15 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 38c | 1,415$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.98 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 32c | 1,400$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked No | 51c | 1,400$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 59c | 1,383$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…b863backed Yes | 60c | 1,329$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 66c | 1,326$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.47 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 8c | 1,301$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 39c | 1,296$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 32c | 1,288$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.26 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 41c | 1,259$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.03 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,220$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.67 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 69c | 1,166$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…e10fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,155$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 32c | 1,130$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…f5f7backed No | 41c | 1,125$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed No | 42c | 1,100$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…688ebacked No | 2c | 1,085$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 1,074$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.85 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes | 56c | 1,005$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 31c | 996.98$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.34 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 51c | 986.6$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.35 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…ff97backed Yes | 71c | 979.31$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…1d20backed No | 32c | 975.12$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 34c | 970$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.3 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 54c | 955.58$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.94 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 15c | 936.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.77 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.