TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$936,339
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$896,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $936,339 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 663 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8631…9a73backed Yes38c64,049$24,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,969.138549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No1c47,853$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.2750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca7…3303backed Yes28c43,038$12,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,987.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd3…fec2backed No72c43,038$30,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,987.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes71c36,764$26,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,636.8614750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12e6…60a3backed No1c15,346$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b92…1761backed Yes19c11,727$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,550.741580%12 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x117e…4241backed Yes29c11,542$3,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,194.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eae…e469backed No2c11,497$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No50c11,264$5,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,683.1435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…5764backed No1c11,157$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No33c10,863$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.723461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No2c10,721$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.121330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+227.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8966…5d80backed No48c10,106$4,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,820.141827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x305c…1d82backed No6c9,580$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.11553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd4…c0febacked No2c8,705$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No37c7,988$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,918.8714456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes21c7,823$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,167.113228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2039…d77fbacked No71c7,740$5,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,495.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…89a1backed No80c7,476$5,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,951.74683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No21c7,240$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.571540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eed…88fcbacked Yes29c7,026$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,988.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes72c6,741$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.252250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No67c5,133$3,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,453.534841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No80c4,876$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9002040%8 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe229…c8b0backed No66c4,493$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2619…34efbacked No3c4,454$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No77c4,329$3,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,344.021553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e4…a4d5backed No3c4,260$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No63c4,257$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.0114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0412…d000backed No3c4,223$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f2…5398backed No2c4,223$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed No4c4,201$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc7…3daebacked No16c4,157$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes42c4,144$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.5211040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe247…29f6backed No4c4,032$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked No3c4,019$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.841241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick17cpaid+187.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked No2c4,013$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d6a…4d09backed No71c3,999$2,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,839.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014b…243bbacked No3c3,850$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed No34c3,826$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.714447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No45c3,635$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.753745.9%17 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No38c3,572$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.412552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc184…e0f7backed No3c3,568$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed No3c3,524$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5794…f57dbacked No71c3,506$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a15…68abbacked No3c3,495$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes50c3,488$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.2615029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0e…e7b2backed No71c3,323$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes28c3,303$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.912850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No50c3,123$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.1612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes19c3,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No77c2,986$2,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,306.0713230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff99…5602backed No67c2,973$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+120.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No70c2,900$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.823461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…dba8backed No4c2,876$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No29c2,874$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.927548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5b…8e60backed No2c2,798$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f9…fb6abacked No4c2,780$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2789…9445backed No0c2,710$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd4…301fbacked No4c2,686$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2439…b4a8backed No6c2,661$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No3c2,576$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1686…df3ebacked No38c2,562$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+251.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No66c2,514$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.3711645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2973…3ac8backed No3c2,512$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x967e…2063backed Yes24c2,500$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick34cpaid+78.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked No48c2,479$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.392748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd75…d2a6backed No5c2,211$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5197…7200backed No2c2,174$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No78c2,167$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.545563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed14…bebcbacked No49c2,126$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No77c2,106$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.784151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No6c2,100$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1164235.7%15 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c2,100$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.9926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0999…016ebacked No42c2,070$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No1c2,010$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.922416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No62c1,964$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.154247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes71c1,893$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.925143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes31c1,890$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.691145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3600…8aeabacked No2c1,843$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes33c1,833$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.3311839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1843…8402backed No3c1,765$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,750$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes32c1,749$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.4423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd943…8676backed No6c1,741$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed No3c1,725$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41d0…cee4backed Yes49c1,719$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes26c1,713$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.878639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf954…ef7abacked No4c1,686$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.55650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+76.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes24c1,672$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+112.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9f47…9387backed No1c1,670$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed No54c1,656$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.576640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b09…9ad5backed No2c1,597$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964d…5194backed No66c1,586$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.81060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked No6c1,556$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e93…353fbacked No45c1,531$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.051540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc0…ed52backed No3c1,507$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked No75c1,487$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.15825%2 W · 6 L-3.4wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-66.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.