Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac476a929bb1a5652c9244eeeca3c0f454539f229b561ea1b594cab9fdf3c64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 5c | 9,000$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.69 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 1c | 6,963$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 3c | 4,938$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 4,365$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,042$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…1c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,404$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,961$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,947$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,547$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…acacbacked Yes | 3c | 1,447$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x753f…14c9backed Yes | 8c | 1,422$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,241$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 5c | 1,162$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 2c | 1,041$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…cb5ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,036$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafb…dc2abacked Yes | 6c | 988.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 5c | 883.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 3c | 716.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 3c | 690.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea13…b148backed Yes | 3c | 657$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…ca25backed Yes | 6c | 517.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…2cecbacked Yes | 7c | 506.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…cb0abacked Yes | 7c | 493.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ef…1be5backed Yes | 3c | 338.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.