Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135096de7aea3a66f65be697fa6d6162b28828ae15f4802a41f2c3b719792e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,256,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,335,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,256,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,085 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 59c | 68,000$39,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,948.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c27…4099backed Yes | 59c | 63,413$37,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,706.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Yes | 61c | 59,837$36,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,560.32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 65c | 45,072$29,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,788.9 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 47c | 30,595$14,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,228.44 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 46c | 28,913$13,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,600.81 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…6863backed Yes | 64c | 27,178$17,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,449.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 34c | 27,100$9,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,815.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 39c | 26,364$10,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,318.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 52c | 22,765$11,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,941.8 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Yes | 56c | 19,337$10,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,883.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 37c | 18,790$6,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,790.96 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 49c | 18,408$8,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,465.32 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c0…8b22backed No | 42c | 17,949$7,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,354.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 41c | 17,395$7,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,266.33 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 21c | 16,372$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.01 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 31c | 16,114$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,089.43 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 34c | 15,689$5,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,413.33 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 38c | 15,336$5,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,575.88 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 35c | 14,561$5,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,509.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 57c | 13,608$7,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,784.22 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 45c | 13,520$6,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,442.97 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked Yes | 51c | 13,174$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 36c | 12,910$4,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,270.34 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 65c | 12,729$8,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,214.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 52c | 12,684$6,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,027.37 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 37c | 12,400$4,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,838.98 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 60c | 11,228$6,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,479.17 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 41c | 11,161$4,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,623.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed No | 46c | 11,081$5,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,029.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 67c | 10,956$7,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,342.42 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 39c | 10,741$4,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,525.98 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…7dbbbacked Yes | 61c | 10,620$6,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,484.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…642abacked Yes | 14c | 10,074$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 50c | 10,063$5,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,041.44 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…28f9backed Yes | 59c | 9,566$5,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,657.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 60c | 8,866$5,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.75 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 49c | 8,580$4,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 55c | 8,431$4,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,826.96 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 38c | 7,879$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,850.97 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed No | 36c | 7,806$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,979.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…6f99backed No | 55c | 7,760$4,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,480.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 58c | 7,599$4,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,434.83 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 31c | 7,209$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,009.32 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked No | 54c | 7,000$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 12c | 6,484$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.64 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 38c | 6,389$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,974.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…f486backed No | 39c | 6,000$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…a517backed No | 53c | 5,918$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd300…30adbacked Yes | 61c | 5,905$3,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,611.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 58c | 5,900$3,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.53 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 79c | 5,750$4,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 5,649$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.17 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 28c | 5,328$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.14 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed No | 39c | 5,241$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,221.78 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 59c | 5,213$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.36 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 23c | 5,195$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.11 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 71c | 5,159$3,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 28c | 5,132$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,692.54 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 67c | 5,132$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,442.92 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,704$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.15 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 36c | 4,654$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 59c | 4,447$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 35c | 4,380$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.77 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 45c | 4,062$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.91 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 39c | 4,053$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.39 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2d43backed No | 29c | 4,000$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 62c | 3,970$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.86 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,864$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.78 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…6588backed No | 58c | 3,772$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd5…7f5dbacked No | 52c | 3,766$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +206.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 50c | 3,759$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.74 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…06d5backed Yes | 53c | 3,749$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…96ecbacked No | 53c | 3,729$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 46c | 3,478$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.54 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 42c | 3,397$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.1 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 53c | 3,264$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.46 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 39c | 3,259$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.28 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 65c | 3,236$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.44 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed No | 62c | 3,232$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.85 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 36c | 3,144$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 52c | 3,038$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 52c | 2,993$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.81 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed No | 34c | 2,968$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 55c | 2,939$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.98 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 36c | 2,799$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 55c | 2,790$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.99 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 57c | 2,726$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 2,684$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.54 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…bf9dbacked No | 45c | 2,660$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 44c | 2,660$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.1 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 53c | 2,646$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b476backed No | 37c | 2,568$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 8c | 2,568$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 47c | 2,535$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.84 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 66c | 2,450$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 71c | 2,438$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Yes | 73c | 2,424$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.