Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a9217a221b4e27ed6116059aefa28af4ba16ad7167c18581d83bf8576513183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 6c | 6,172$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.8 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 10c | 3,661$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.56 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…96e8backed Yes | 8c | 1,704$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…bb14backed Yes | 6c | 1,646$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,550$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,459$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6874…5a96backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,271$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 9c | 1,045$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…b2ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 8c | 902.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 709.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1912backed Yes | 11c | 700.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 7c | 687.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 667.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 10c | 555$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…16b1backed Yes | 6c | 536.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 10c | 499.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 450.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 419.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 9c | 401.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 4c | 326$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 16c | 305.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…47ffbacked Yes | 7c | 301.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 276$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes | 9c | 169.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…bfa7backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…eb68backed No | 77c | 156.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…6cdebacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 141.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 131.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…6759backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.