Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab03a5adc30a70d64279a1e894b94665583fcec6ef6d6fcfd2d4687968847ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,474,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,477,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,474,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,030 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 73c | 65,120$47,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,766.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 60c | 62,084$37,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,938.21 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 45c | 47,448$21,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,961.44 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 78c | 40,512$31,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,574.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 31c | 38,524$11,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,545.46 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 20c | 36,553$7,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,328.45 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 23c | 27,030$6,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,718.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 20c | 25,662$5,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,415.81 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 30c | 20,202$6,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,166.39 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef83…96ecbacked No | 18c | 16,832$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,874.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 53c | 16,742$8,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,945.35 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 42c | 16,699$7,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,663.45 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 52c | 15,740$8,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,476.98 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…a84abacked Yes | 51c | 15,329$7,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,754.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed No | 75c | 15,033$11,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,782.34 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…3f61backed Yes | 65c | 15,000$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,699.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 17c | 14,726$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,250.47 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 36c | 13,402$4,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,595.22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 29c | 12,473$3,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,803.41 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 20c | 12,202$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,821.19 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd300…30adbacked Yes | 60c | 11,913$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 71c | 11,677$8,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,335.24 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…4508backed Yes | 60c | 11,675$6,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,992 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 43c | 11,369$4,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,487.21 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 49c | 10,562$5,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,176.54 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 53c | 9,804$5,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,566.98 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Yes | 21c | 9,200$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 46c | 8,999$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…ad89backed No | 74c | 8,703$6,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 34c | 8,600$2,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,660.84 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed No | 32c | 8,459$2,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,758.05 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 37c | 8,399$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102.05 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…6f99backed No | 23c | 8,006$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,185.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed No | 25c | 7,846$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,905.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 37c | 7,672$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,862.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 28c | 7,442$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,340.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…7b0bbacked No | 35c | 7,426$2,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,842.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 25c | 7,267$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,425.98 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…2da0backed Yes | 67c | 7,198$4,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 74c | 6,870$5,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.03 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 51c | 6,832$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 47c | 6,791$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,611.81 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…81c3backed Yes | 78c | 6,736$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,249.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 25c | 6,575$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,954.32 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 14c | 6,515$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,594.03 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked Yes | 70c | 6,408$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 47c | 6,338$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 78c | 6,280$4,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,874.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…f403backed Yes | 56c | 6,088$3,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,384.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 43c | 5,941$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…f4acbacked Yes | 74c | 5,913$4,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,365.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 14c | 5,839$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,031.07 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 49c | 5,770$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.74 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…0601backed Yes | 19c | 5,715$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 74c | 5,638$4,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,179.94 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…6863backed Yes | 23c | 5,392$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…e7b6backed Yes | 73c | 5,346$3,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…b5dbbacked Yes | 57c | 5,134$2,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,934.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed Yes | 79c | 5,095$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…8ea6backed Yes | 74c | 5,030$3,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,702.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…1f05backed Yes | 60c | 4,939$2,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.03 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked Yes | 70c | 4,936$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 51c | 4,910$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.89 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…54bdbacked No | 56c | 4,889$2,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 19c | 4,803$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,866.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 58c | 4,758$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,763 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd1…02b9backed Yes | 54c | 4,696$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 33c | 4,523$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,020.68 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 48c | 4,514$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.85 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…398bbacked Yes | 40c | 4,500$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed Yes | 49c | 4,498$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Yes | 68c | 4,317$2,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,922.98 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…6f4bbacked No | 48c | 4,177$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd749…12cabacked Yes | 75c | 4,017$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…a7acbacked No | 42c | 4,012$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 26c | 4,007$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,981.06 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 49c | 3,902$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.54 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 21c | 3,818$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016.64 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd5…7f5dbacked No | 24c | 3,707$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +206.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…8b5bbacked Yes | 71c | 3,705$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked No | 37c | 3,683$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 41c | 3,480$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 35c | 3,423$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.87 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…27aebacked No | 47c | 3,409$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 75c | 3,348$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…c1c3backed Yes | 50c | 3,341$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked No | 56c | 3,224$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed No | 35c | 3,181$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.87 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked No | 39c | 3,174$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 11c | 3,131$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.05 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…713dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,085$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 41c | 3,084$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.94 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 53c | 3,081$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.73 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 64c | 3,053$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.17 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 28c | 3,047$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.36 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 31c | 3,022$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,085.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 50c | 3,020$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.36 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 28c | 3,000$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 47c | 3,000$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…ab25backed Yes | 69c | 3,000$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.