Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb326f67a9fb3feb7fc007e75871f2496dbac995cb63f4729702822dcff4af51f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 6c | 4,320$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.19 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 80c | 3,844$3,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.86 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 64c | 3,372$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.43 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 6c | 3,184$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…7ba2backed Yes | 33c | 2,970$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…0601backed Yes | 18c | 2,567$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,518$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…f3eabacked Yes | 44c | 2,260$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,245$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…2d21backed Yes | 52c | 1,987$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,879$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 5c | 1,773$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked Yes | 25c | 1,460$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…2251backed Yes | 1c | 1,383$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,265$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 30c | 1,254$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.26 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…df3ebacked No | 69c | 1,252$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +251.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 6c | 1,230$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…79adbacked Yes | 18c | 1,159$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…34aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,058$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb274…0cadbacked No | 71c | 970.11$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.51 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked No | 78c | 962.79$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…8d1abacked Yes | 11c | 936.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked Yes | 12c | 859.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Yes | 29c | 780$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f3…6704backed No | 75c | 750.99$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 656.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 65c | 651.86$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.24 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 74c | 643.38$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.39 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…1ce3backed Yes | 34c | 594.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 571.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…6a11backed Yes | 36c | 552.24$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 80c | 519.01$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 8c | 514.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1284…9b8abacked Yes | 5c | 504.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 25c | 499.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 3c | 499.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…a984backed Yes | 9c | 469.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes | 6c | 439.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a7…9aa0backed Yes | 14c | 431.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…57aabacked Yes | 22c | 421.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…6462backed Yes | 7c | 366.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 18c | 354.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 16c | 349.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 56c | 336.48$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.43 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…398bbacked Yes | 26c | 326.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…8d46backed Yes | 4c | 320$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 25c | 319.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…bc8ebacked Yes | 36c | 307.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…adc5backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x921b…06d7backed Yes | 7c | 291.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 19c | 291.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 35c | 283.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 71c | 281.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…6921backed Yes | 17c | 271.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…e754backed Yes | 9c | 269.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…4208backed Yes | 32c | 254.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…11d9backed Yes | 8c | 247.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…a27abacked Yes | 42c | 244.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 20c | 235.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 71c | 232.83$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 78c | 224.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…7af8backed Yes | 25c | 209$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…bff2backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 26c | 193.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…e1d8backed No | 79c | 182.23$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 68c | 179.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…77b2backed Yes | 9c | 178$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…6873backed No | 72c | 173.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f63…ff9abacked Yes | 9c | 162.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…25fdbacked No | 73c | 156.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…177dbacked Yes | 9c | 149.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…0541backed Yes | 7c | 143.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 56c | 138.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a00…60aabacked Yes | 8c | 137.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 137.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…07c7backed Yes | 20c | 132.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…5977backed Yes | 21c | 130.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 68c | 127.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 11c | 123.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31e…63fabacked Yes | 39c | 123.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…7e8fbacked Yes | 28c | 119.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1194…696fbacked Yes | 18c | 119.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafe…1d50backed Yes | 34c | 116.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 50c | 113.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…c72fbacked Yes | 31c | 108.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 34c | 107.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.