TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4215…f03abacked Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick21cpaid+152.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes6c4,320$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.1924258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No80c3,844$3,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.8614456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No64c3,372$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.4323435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c3,184$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.465722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd116…be32backed No52c3,000$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.182060%12 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3910…7ba2backed Yes33c2,970$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf16…0601backed Yes18c2,567$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,518$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3114920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed69…f3eabacked Yes44c2,260$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes8c2,245$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8412547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd56e…2d21backed Yes52c1,987$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,879$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5715217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes5c1,773$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.926647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af5…89babacked Yes25c1,460$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.891323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0683…2251backed Yes1c1,383$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes24c1,265$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes30c1,254$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.264445.5%20 W · 24 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1686…df3ebacked No69c1,252$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+251.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes6c1,230$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.392850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x168a…79adbacked Yes18c1,159$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…34aebacked Yes5c1,058$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb274…0cadbacked No71c970.11$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.51887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.38per pick50cpaid+70.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c84…2c7ebacked No78c962.79$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.791656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d2…8d1abacked Yes11c936.84$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5c9…586abacked Yes12c859.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Yes29c780$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f3…6704backed No75c750.99$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.46771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes14c656.71$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.920026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No65c651.86$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.2411050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No74c643.38$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.396030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe967…1ce3backed Yes34c594.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddae…5d62backed Yes35c571.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd57e…6a11backed Yes36c552.24$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No80c519.01$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.57548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes8c514.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0513622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1284…9b8abacked Yes5c504.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes25c499.98$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.997247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes3c499.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98fe…a984backed Yes9c469.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes6c439.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a7…9aa0backed Yes14c431.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c2…57aabacked Yes22c421.32$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923767.6%25 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4761…6462backed Yes7c366.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes18c354.35$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-70.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes16c349.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9935341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed Yes56c336.48$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.433043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5018…398bbacked Yes26c326.54$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.91030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d76…8d46backed Yes4c320$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes25c319.46$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.172615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf7a…bc8ebacked Yes36c307.28$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c1…adc5backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-90.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed14…bebcbacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes12c299.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x921b…06d7backed Yes7c291.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0991…e29abacked Yes19c291.02$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee6…4050backed Yes35c283.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No71c281.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.483865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe706…6921backed Yes17c271.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…e754backed Yes9c269.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a2a…4208backed Yes32c254.26$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.511127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-52.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5014147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…11d9backed Yes8c247.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8178…a27abacked Yes42c244.86$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed Yes20c235.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.354151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d9…8483backed No71c232.83$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.522369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes16c230$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.656317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No78c224.88$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2714150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd758…7af8backed Yes25c209$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b28…bff2backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes26c193.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-58.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xddc4…e1d8backed No79c182.23$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.731963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No68c179.6$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8215855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9889…77b2backed Yes9c178$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4d…6873backed No72c173.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.611442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f63…ff9abacked Yes9c162.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa293…25fdbacked No73c156.58$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c40…177dbacked Yes9c149.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10c…0541backed Yes7c143.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ae…e412backed No56c138.07$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.493268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a00…60aabacked Yes8c137.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611560%9 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes10c137.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7417122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae7…07c7backed Yes20c132.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ead…5977backed Yes21c130.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No68c127.86$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.394452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes11c123.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.066913%9 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc31e…63fabacked Yes39c123.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5986…7e8fbacked Yes28c119.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-56.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1194…696fbacked Yes18c119.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcafe…1d50backed Yes34c116.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No50c113.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.63745.9%17 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x87e7…c72fbacked Yes31c108.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85cb…6603backed Yes34c107.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.353740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.857851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.