TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeac7…3eaa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
130
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+283.1%+$90.16
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$392
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$805Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$804.82
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$757Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$757.46
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,480Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+58.1%+$859.98
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$708Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$214.91
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.97
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$558Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+116.4%+$649.53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,961Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,960.85
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,051Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,051.33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+80.2%+$445
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,416Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+58.6%+$829.56
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$211.5
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,013Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+32%+$965.21
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$40.8
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$400.07
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$40.93
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$108.29
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 25 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$560.03
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT3138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$220
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$214.99
Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$285.58
Will Ciprian Ciucu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$129.19
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$523.4
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$905Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+251.6%+$2,276.42
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$244.61
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$126.66
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$934Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$934
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+54.5%+$275.78
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$459Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$458.56
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$145.85
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$149.26
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$41.12
Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+83.5%+$18.2
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+410.2%+$402
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+106.9%+$62
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.09
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+189.4%+$294.5
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$210
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more than 72%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$538
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST2520%5 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$588Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+185.6%+$1,090.53
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the government shutdown end November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+147.5%+$888.43
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$403
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$394.47
Will the government shutdown end November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$342.35
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$53.67
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$243
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.62
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.9
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+525%+$168
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.99
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$92
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$67
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$63.8
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$88
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+207.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$114
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.24
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$456
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+2,930.3%+$2,901
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$858Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+354.5%+$3,042
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+144%+$833.48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,378Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+160.5%+$2,211.04
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$215
Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$52.83
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+53.2%+$138.9
All 14 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$241.87
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.97
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.19
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+250.9%+$286
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$63
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$104
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.9
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$64
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.67
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Alverca win on 2025-09-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$11.32
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-09-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+49.4%+$5.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vikings vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$10.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Group Dbacked OlyBet SB · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.