Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ef080b0699c61efceb625433b55912473ffba94c174125dd0f7658d6f353ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca29…5986backed Yes | 39c | 30,537$11,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,909.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…e469backed No | 61c | 30,537$18,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,909.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…0bd7backed Yes | 37c | 30,288$11,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,206.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…c507backed No | 63c | 30,288$19,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,206.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b3…4297backed No | 61c | 29,723$18,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,591.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…c267backed Yes | 39c | 29,723$11,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,591.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…dd25backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked No | 72c | 3,495$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 69c | 2,775$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.95 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…ff69backed No | 72c | 1,659$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 30c | 1,409$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.31 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 32c | 1,300$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 30c | 1,262$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…892cbacked Yes | 34c | 890$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…5377backed Yes | 34c | 880$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…6f4abacked No | 70c | 867.37$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…5cabbacked No | 66c | 840$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…eae0backed Yes | 36c | 835$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes | 34c | 824$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…ad1dbacked Yes | 32c | 685.57$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 67c | 655$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.24 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…5834backed Yes | 35c | 570$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…0cebbacked No | 66c | 550$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 38c | 538.78$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b8…5ee8backed No | 64c | 520$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 31c | 518.7$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 68c | 479.99$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…97eebacked No | 66c | 450$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 30c | 448.51$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb05b…d77ebacked No | 64c | 410$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 71c | 350.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 66c | 307.77$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…8237backed No | 70c | 286.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 64c | 280$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…71cdbacked Yes | 34c | 274.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 66c | 266.86$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 37c | 250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 63c | 238.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked No | 63c | 220.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…99e2backed No | 67c | 218.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8e…3abbbacked Yes | 34c | 207.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…bdafbacked No | 66c | 203.65$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 32c | 199.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 36c | 196$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 169.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…2177backed Yes | 38c | 167.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…fd15backed No | 64c | 163.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…a010backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d7…5c6dbacked No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…5730backed Yes | 36c | 145$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…80ecbacked No | 70c | 143.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…e37cbacked No | 70c | 143.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…da7cbacked No | 70c | 142.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 71c | 140.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…5f28backed No | 72c | 140.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 10c | 134$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 78c | 133.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9dd0backed No | 70c | 127.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…9f63backed Yes | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…8e59backed Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed No | 67c | 113.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 33c | 107.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 31c | 93.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 90.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…40bebacked No | 71c | 87.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…3689backed No | 71c | 72.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…4e1abacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5f…ee57backed Yes | 36c | 65.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked No | 71c | 55.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked No | 69c | 49.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 67c | 47.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…637ebacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…843abacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…ab1cbacked No | 63c | 35.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…0095backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…8161backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…ebb6backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.