TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca29…5986backed Yes39c30,537$11,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,909.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…e469backed No61c30,537$18,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,909.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x388e…0bd7backed Yes37c30,288$11,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,206.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x999c…c507backed No63c30,288$19,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,206.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b3…4297backed No61c29,723$18,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,591.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…c267backed Yes39c29,723$11,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,591.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcee…dd25backed Yes28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked No72c3,495$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.171040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No69c2,775$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.957160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x387a…ff69backed No72c1,659$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes30c1,409$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.3112941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes32c1,300$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.996842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes30c1,262$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.44344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd0…892cbacked Yes34c890$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d53…5377backed Yes34c880$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1878…6f4abacked No70c867.37$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74b…5cabbacked No66c840$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca05…eae0backed Yes36c835$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes34c824$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…ad1dbacked Yes32c685.57$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No67c655$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.244645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed Yes35c570$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf258…0cebbacked No66c550$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes38c538.78$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.353641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b8…5ee8backed No64c520$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes31c518.7$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.962128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1457265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No68c479.99$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4ff…97eebacked No66c450$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes30c448.51$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2719026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb05b…d77ebacked No64c410$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked No71c350.17$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.171338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick65cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes25c350$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.54548.9%22 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No66c307.77$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0310420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb38a…8237backed No70c286.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No64c280$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.81747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9694…71cdbacked Yes34c274.68$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed No66c266.86$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.32887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes37c250$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.287243.1%31 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed No63c238.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0da7…ca6cbacked No63c220.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9c…99e2backed No67c218.5$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes31c210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.11844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8e…3abbbacked Yes34c207.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3901…bdafbacked No66c203.65$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7458…fecfbacked No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes32c199.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653727%10 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes36c196$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.943756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No66c169.06$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.486453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc51c…2177backed Yes38c167.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5607…fd15backed No64c163.53$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.87425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x715c…a010backed No66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d7…5c6dbacked No64c160$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbd…5730backed Yes36c145$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab3…80ecbacked No70c143.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.61560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59a…e37cbacked No70c143.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82aa…da7cbacked No70c142.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…11fbbacked No71c140.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.681163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+94.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc516…5f28backed No72c140.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.24560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed No73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes10c134$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.062737%10 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No78c133.01$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.26580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+93.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed No70c127.91$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3c…9f63backed Yes37c115$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde51…8e59backed Yes34c115$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed No67c113.72$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334723.4%11 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes33c107.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes31c93.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.86520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes31c90.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked No66c89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7312…40bebacked No71c87.78$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.953187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2820021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed No64c80$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed No69c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.252931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb12e…3689backed No71c72.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.93666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed No70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa552…4e1abacked Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde5f…ee57backed Yes36c65.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-84.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6204…421abacked No71c55.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a03…6e17backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c7…4e5bbacked No69c49.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffde…219dbacked No67c47.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.862846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x031a…637ebacked No64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf8…843abacked No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.22259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+61.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes32c38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb37f…ab1cbacked No63c35.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f1…0095backed Yes34c35.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf9…8161backed No71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6821…ebb6backed Yes34c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.