Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ffa8b0d4a4550501f67fbf4f8891df217cb1a0daee2b0a2959d1b3477441eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 3c | 4,764$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes | 34c | 2,920$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 62c | 2,200$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.5 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,907$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 74c | 1,248$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.82 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…763dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,023$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 77c | 916$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 75c | 822.39$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33f…867abacked Yes | 19c | 805.65$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…9f37backed Yes | 14c | 719.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 79c | 680.83$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 599.99$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…e517backed Yes | 15c | 590.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…074fbacked Yes | 19c | 515.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…adc2backed Yes | 28c | 465.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 13c | 397.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…7b31backed Yes | 19c | 379.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d3…40d8backed Yes | 29c | 340.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79b…e600backed Yes | 16c | 328.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf806…9762backed Yes | 13c | 312.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 15c | 282.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8e…3abbbacked Yes | 25c | 278.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 12c | 272.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723b…4745backed Yes | 10c | 261.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 260.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…8e24backed Yes | 13c | 247.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fd…989abacked Yes | 10c | 241.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…9003backed Yes | 14c | 241.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…2870backed Yes | 20c | 200.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 11c | 197$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…ec14backed Yes | 15c | 184.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a4…05f5backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…c9c3backed Yes | 12c | 175.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b4…58e6backed Yes | 29c | 174.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8425…be0abacked Yes | 23c | 173.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 165.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…913ebacked Yes | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed Yes | 26c | 154.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…7ac1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 17c | 145.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…4c24backed Yes | 15c | 129.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75a…3e62backed Yes | 18c | 111.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…b384backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4981…2991backed Yes | 11c | 104.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…85ddbacked Yes | 19c | 104.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…5c87backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…b8f1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…d5c6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…059cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…51b3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…f20bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…054cbacked Yes | 24c | 92.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…d621backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…d8bebacked Yes | 23c | 88.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…e2acbacked Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa443…1913backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…314dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…4cf1backed Yes | 28c | 43.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 76c | 43.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…92f9backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…76c7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.