TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fbb…377abacked No33c28,140$9,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,410.921338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes67c8,541$5,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.947160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed No3c7,882$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.461010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7501250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes74c4,060$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.71040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes66c2,738$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.244344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes77c2,712$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.881546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes70c2,500$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7456842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No29c2,148$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.7410420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x038f…ba58backed No37c1,360$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes65c1,287$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.988924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes69c1,169$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.62887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes69c1,100$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3436355.6%35 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No31c1,000$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes64c999.99$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes58c928.76$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.082035%7 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe92…d51abacked Yes71c772.84$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+71%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes71c749.99$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked No35c705.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes70c654.34$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.312941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes68c619.38$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.137265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No30c602.05$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No26c518.15$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.191747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No27c514.91$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.732128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1703641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0e…98bfbacked Yes71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes70c420.55$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.752161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes70c395.1$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.782642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb7…04d8backed No29c385.63$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed No32c309.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x639b…99e7backed Yes71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Yes71c279.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.86966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe79…9d68backed No37c266.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked No28c258.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.231020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes68c250$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.59853.1%52 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes69c245$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.92437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-29.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb7…17e1backed Yes69c211.26$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+319%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6010545.7%48 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-73.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ea…c9c3backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed Yes70c199.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes67c199.98$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.991560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes72c186.48$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.966442.2%27 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe25…4e99backed Yes71c184.44$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe450…0b8fbacked No33c181.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a3…5adabacked No28c180$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes71c168.89$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.631643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes70c158.93$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.681353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked No27c153.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.162917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.54645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed Yes68c149.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Yes74c149.39$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.394100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95b9…1a27backed Yes72c145.43$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.72666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes62c144.68$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.982343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab3…80ecbacked Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85875%6 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x935b…5550backed Yes72c137.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1bd…1c7ebacked Yes73c137.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5001…49c3backed Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes67c134$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.822544%11 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19fa…5530backed No30c133.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed No29c132.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.94650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…a189backed No74c128.22$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes67c114.48$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.216453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes66c113.31$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.531190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick67cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No34c106$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.04944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29e0…830bbacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1028…3a85backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c9…c040backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b86…53d7backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94e4…3b11backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-83.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f3…f7e3backed No26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ce…6b46backed Yes74c96.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed No48c90.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.23714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes67c84.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.835930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x515e…c9e7backed Yes71c84.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048a…879ebacked No29c84.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed No31c80.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc560…7a11backed Yes73c76.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No33c76.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.17110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1560…7ad5backed Yes74c76.12$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.794100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+90.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes74c75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa32d…4826backed Yes70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x586e…4910backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.423100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3847…5c87backed No28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62015%3 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5631…a679backed Yes73c68.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No30c66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa92c…c620backed Yes70c64.29$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.