Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c0d4a0500a76186568270e28ff3619e7598578d2e90094bb89f2e0371cff0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 33c | 28,140$9,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,410.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 67c | 8,541$5,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,842.94 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed No | 3c | 7,882$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes | 74c | 4,060$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 66c | 2,738$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.24 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 77c | 2,712$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 70c | 2,500$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 29c | 2,148$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.74 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed No | 37c | 1,360$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,287$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.98 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 69c | 1,169$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.62 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 69c | 1,100$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 31c | 1,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 58c | 928.76$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…d51abacked Yes | 71c | 772.84$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 71c | 749.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked No | 35c | 705.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 70c | 654.34$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.3 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 68c | 619.38$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.13 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 30c | 602.05$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 26c | 518.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 27c | 514.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…98bfbacked Yes | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 70c | 420.55$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 70c | 395.1$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed No | 29c | 385.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 32c | 309.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639b…99e7backed Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 71c | 279.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…9d68backed No | 37c | 266.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked No | 28c | 258.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 68c | 250$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 69c | 245$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…17e1backed Yes | 69c | 211.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +319%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…c9c3backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 67c | 199.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 72c | 186.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…4e99backed Yes | 71c | 184.44$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…0b8fbacked No | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked No | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 71c | 168.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 70c | 158.93$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked No | 27c | 153.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 74c | 149.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…1a27backed Yes | 72c | 145.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 62c | 144.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…80ecbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…5550backed Yes | 72c | 137.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…1c7ebacked Yes | 73c | 137.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…49c3backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 67c | 134$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fa…5530backed No | 30c | 133.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed No | 29c | 132.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…a189backed No | 74c | 128.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 67c | 114.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 66c | 113.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 34c | 106$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…3b11backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f3…f7e3backed No | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…6b46backed Yes | 74c | 96.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…5834backed No | 48c | 90.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 67c | 84.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…c9e7backed Yes | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…879ebacked No | 29c | 84.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…7a11backed Yes | 73c | 76.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 33c | 76.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…7ad5backed Yes | 74c | 76.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…4826backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…4910backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…5c87backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…a679backed Yes | 73c | 68.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92c…c620backed Yes | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.