Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc623f0782fbbfb9076a89950bbf96c10d3e19974a627fcdbce56613f25ebbf8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No | 4c | 61,199$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 1c | 17,111$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 15,472$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.8 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 12,250$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.98 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…8362backed No | 0c | 11,790$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 11,377$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.54 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…9350backed No | 3c | 11,179$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked No | 1c | 7,090$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…a239backed No | 2c | 6,618$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 2c | 5,434$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…f06cbacked No | 4c | 4,296$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,841$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…567dbacked No | 3c | 3,726$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 2c | 3,617$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…1ca2backed No | 3c | 3,215$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 1c | 3,155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked No | 4c | 3,149$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 3c | 3,034$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc4fbacked No | 2c | 2,727$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…2e7abacked No | 3c | 2,468$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…d621backed No | 1c | 2,239$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5881…d790backed No | 2c | 2,160$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed No | 5c | 1,905$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked No | 2c | 1,750$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 1,453$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 3c | 1,411$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…c818backed No | 1c | 1,154$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed No | 3c | 1,075$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2872…27cdbacked No | 2c | 1,022$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…0e6cbacked No | 2c | 1,020$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b2…7f60backed No | 3c | 929.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 3c | 852.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa285…98e8backed No | 3c | 750$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…325dbacked No | 3c | 746.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…8d71backed No | 3c | 720$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…d598backed No | 3c | 672.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 2c | 664.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75a…3e62backed No | 5c | 649.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1b…c259backed No | 2c | 610.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…f4cebacked No | 3c | 606.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 2c | 603$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…2f98backed No | 3c | 563.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff3d…ed28backed No | 3c | 520$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 3c | 514.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…ce37backed No | 4c | 502.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f5…f23abacked No | 3c | 483.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…02d8backed No | 2c | 444.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked No | 5c | 429.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…e8d5backed No | 3c | 369.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…f7a4backed No | 3c | 349.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…a2ecbacked No | 3c | 349.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed No | 6c | 342.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed No | 3c | 334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…a679backed No | 4c | 314.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…c8f8backed No | 3c | 286$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Comment" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Median" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during June Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Volatile" during June Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.