TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc210…4666backed No61c35,912$21,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,906.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e305backed Yes39c35,912$14,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,906.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+132.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x272c…2c93backed No63c34,618$21,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,809.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04e…560dbacked Yes37c34,618$12,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,809.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No62c2,671$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.144645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes44c2,454$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.891353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No56c1,585$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.971172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…1822backed Yes38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No52c991.34$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3610420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8af4…0bd2backed Yes40c985$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No51c776.85$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5412941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No46c750.23$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.232128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x259d…5246backed No60c740$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2821…135bbacked No62c740$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes40c664.9$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.41862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed No59c499.93$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.963641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No52c472.43$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.426355.6%35 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes44c468.3$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.072737%10 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No55c455.41$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.267160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2282343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes51c390.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes31c349.55$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.667243.1%31 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No60c337.38$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.054344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No4c312$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.482114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+432.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No4c311.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48205%1 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No61c297.5$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.171747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes33c280$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.66616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4fe…d287backed No61c260$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf282…0b22backed No62c260$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c37…1d33backed No60c260$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes40c259.06$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7219026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1560…7ad5backed Yes39c212.12$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.584100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+90.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No58c210$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.81844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8655…0116backed Yes50c200.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12410545.7%48 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed Yes53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes53c199.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes40c185$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed No52c181$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes33c176.06$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.746453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes41c157$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes42c149.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.991233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…0a49backed Yes34c132.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+50.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7295…fc62backed Yes42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.05560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked No47c114.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.942917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes38c111.87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.158626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a98…5950backed No52c105.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes48c103.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.673345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead7…003abacked No62c102.68$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked No50c100.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.341020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611625%4 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick67cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc70e…7cd6backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663727%10 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605930.5%18 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x22db…a189backed Yes53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed No53c94.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked No62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick65cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes33c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.64548.9%22 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes33c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.62161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x24bd…3f74backed Yes39c77.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes41c68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes39c64.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.492544%11 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeae…5917backed Yes40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Yes47c58.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.981435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x92d8…f20bbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes38c49.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.71580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd29c…ddccbacked Yes38c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+61.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed No53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-87%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa73b…66abbacked Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+71.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes34c35.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed Yes69c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1028…3a85backed No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes41c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.79853.1%52 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed No47c28.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0da7…ca6cbacked No58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9795…1328backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…4fe8backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffde…219dbacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.792846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153c…82c8backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f05…c280backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe499…1599backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa15…e315backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c98…a58bbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5517…ab11backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7175…51b0backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.