TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1028…3a85

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$83
US forces in Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$63
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$58.24
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+35.4%+$7.8
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+57.5%+$14.37
Will Trump say "RFK" or "Kennedy" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+597.6%+$119.52
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+97.1%+$19.41
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 8 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Wild vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Devils vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$25.71
Blues vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$20.61
Ducks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$18.33
All 5 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+37%+$22.19
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.7
Magic vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$73
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross more than $415m by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockies vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$7.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.