Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d1673f133fe70f1807a338834f1506c8e9a88894f573635b10b92927bed73d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88f4…117fbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 44c | 6,031$2,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.02 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 0c | 2,973$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 56c | 2,780$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.03 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,170$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.7 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 8c | 2,005$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.76 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 9c | 1,939$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.72 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,723$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.35 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked No | 34c | 1,520$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.72 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,505$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.62 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed No | 2c | 1,355$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 69c | 1,301$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.61 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 28c | 1,297$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.71 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 35c | 1,212$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.82 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 55c | 1,193$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.76 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 24c | 1,067$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.44 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 44c | 925.18$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.03 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 45c | 815.88$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.18 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 56c | 808.24$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.08 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…6575backed Yes | 23c | 795$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +342.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 5c | 793.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.04 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 12c | 685.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.76 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 15c | 670.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.84 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed No | 52c | 662.5$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.84 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 658.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.52 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 77c | 650.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 48c | 540.43$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.14 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 7c | 508.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.14 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 72c | 500.82$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 16c | 500.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.47 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 3c | 499.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.47 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 11c | 446.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.31 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 27c | 406.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…c96ebacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.08 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 16c | 389.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.21 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…e0fcbacked No | 53c | 378.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 31c | 356.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.3 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed No | 77c | 345.53$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.06 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed Yes | 31c | 341.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.03 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 42c | 336.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.12 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 55c | 330$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 323.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…f5b6backed Yes | 23c | 302.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…443cbacked No | 77c | 300$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 297.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.61 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…ea8fbacked Yes | 28c | 288.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 50c | 266.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 23c | 263.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.77 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 24c | 260.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ac…1dd1backed No | 67c | 255$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…95fcbacked No | 77c | 255$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 252.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.69 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 8c | 232.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d99…cae7backed No | 6c | 230.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.52 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 60c | 216.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 47c | 214.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 25c | 203.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 28c | 190.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…56f5backed No | 77c | 190$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 23c | 188.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 26c | 185.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…04e0backed No | 77c | 170$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…c736backed Yes | 59c | 169.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 13c | 164.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…057abacked Yes | 62c | 159.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…c1f2backed Yes | 65c | 154.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 50c | 151.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 54c | 136.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 22c | 132.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…d060backed Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 20c | 122.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…ec9ebacked Yes | 9c | 121.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +978.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…a436backed Yes | 54c | 116.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…b3e2backed Yes | 35c | 116.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…e0a5backed Yes | 14c | 109.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 35c | 105.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 32c | 105.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…858bbacked Yes | 24c | 100.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 41c | 97.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 48c | 93.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…b534backed Yes | 49c | 93.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…36a2backed Yes | 24c | 93.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed No | 15c | 92.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 35c | 90.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…730abacked Yes | 44c | 88.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…38f8backed Yes | 20c | 85.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 24c | 81.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 21c | 81.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…0f91backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +197%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…6b37backed Yes | 21c | 78.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +382.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…c71ebacked No | 65c | 77.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 79c | 76.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 17c | 75.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27c…bb94backed Yes | 41c | 75.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 16c | 73.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.