Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x923972b166bd5b7e49aab3e88d65c101163a09c32ef05ae76217b59f493f23a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 9c | 30,197$2,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.66 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 3c | 7,261$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 19c | 4,043$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.3 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,385$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.86 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 3,302$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,079$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 1c | 2,046$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,598$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,033$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 11c | 848.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 764.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 25c | 426.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 364.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 15c | 345.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…281cbacked Yes | 7c | 334.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 30c | 319.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 13c | 289.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 169.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…bc25backed Yes | 34c | 141.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked No | 67c | 140.56$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 128.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 31c | 126.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 120.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 36c | 91.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…196cbacked No | 74c | 51.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…0eddbacked Yes | 29c | 40.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.