Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe107859e5b4eff086617ccc9d0645a0477a35e2a5430de6bdf6554961a2be73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 9c | 17,184$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.76 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 6,040$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 16c | 3,586$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.59 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 37c | 2,824$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.89 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 49c | 2,801$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 15c | 2,520$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.39 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 9c | 2,505$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.84 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 9c | 2,159$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 8c | 2,091$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,049$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…cf2fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,848$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,804$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.13 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…a179backed Yes | 34c | 1,800$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 63c | 1,716$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.12 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 32c | 1,541$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.96 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…3f72backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 1,331$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…6d37backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked No | 47c | 990$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed No | 64c | 978.42$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.9 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…5d73backed Yes | 53c | 910$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 25c | 907.02$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.42 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 12c | 878.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 50c | 875$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.35 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 12c | 803.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 20c | 793.32$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.31 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 53c | 719.99$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.72 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 28c | 714.48$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 649.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…56f5backed No | 47c | 615$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…7123backed Yes | 53c | 610$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 9c | 532.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 43c | 531.37$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…f59bbacked No | 47c | 520$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 15c | 505.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 25c | 500$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…6d35backed Yes | 53c | 480$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…f9d7backed Yes | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 18c | 435.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 12c | 414.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 49c | 412.11$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.12 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 51c | 399.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…18f1backed No | 47c | 395$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 17c | 386.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 20c | 374.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3649…069fbacked Yes | 53c | 355$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…e217backed Yes | 10c | 351.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 13c | 336.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 16c | 314.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a121backed Yes | 19c | 312.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 12c | 299.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…330abacked Yes | 53c | 275$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…4ba7backed Yes | 53c | 275$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…fc9dbacked No | 47c | 255$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 51c | 252.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5677backed Yes | 42c | 249.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 9c | 224.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 9c | 220.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 10c | 207.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x123b…c0d7backed Yes | 53c | 195$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…c901backed Yes | 53c | 185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed Yes | 22c | 182.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 182.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 66c | 173.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…ec9ebacked Yes | 13c | 166.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +978.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 18c | 165.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 13c | 163.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a74…b4afbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 34c | 148.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 12c | 140.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…e780backed Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 15c | 135.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 134$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 38c | 125.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed No | 72c | 120.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 77c | 113.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…f5b6backed Yes | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 23c | 101.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…cdd7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa465…36a2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…e08bbacked Yes | 24c | 82.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.