Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf07923b3a4ca106df255a5d663abc1d79d07cf6165aa8e4754ccf334a6b3a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 40,777$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,216$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 2,777$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 2,232$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.58 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 8c | 2,050$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.98 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed Yes | 11c | 1,877$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,501$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,410$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 5c | 1,124$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 902.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 5c | 730.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…dd04backed Yes | 8c | 643.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 3c | 621.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 11c | 510$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 498.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked Yes | 17c | 412.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 8c | 350$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 9c | 341.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…c812backed Yes | 9c | 279.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 8c | 253.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 9c | 247.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 4c | 245.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870e…e6fbbacked Yes | 9c | 218$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 14c | 215.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 12c | 214.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…801ebacked Yes | 15c | 214.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 12c | 203.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 14c | 189.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…ea8fbacked Yes | 6c | 181.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 10c | 168.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 154$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 15c | 134.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed Yes | 17c | 114.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.