Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6485ea0bfe7a5e1d754f47933914c1adbc7bd3e19645d580c01cab2e530aaed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 48,018$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.48 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 11,652$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.41 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 1c | 5,300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 78c | 4,947$3,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.63 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 3c | 4,374$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 10c | 3,948$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.26 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 6c | 3,900$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 43c | 3,236$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.23 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 43c | 2,158$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.17 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 19c | 2,015$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.14 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.5 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 1,896$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…a508backed Yes | 20c | 1,750$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 16c | 1,738$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…7640backed Yes | 19c | 1,691$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 40c | 1,689$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.71 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 29c | 1,637$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.35 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…8635backed Yes | 15c | 1,587$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,320$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.99 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 30c | 1,274$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.92 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,183$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.81 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,123$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…83f9backed No | 72c | 1,092$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 77c | 1,011$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.66 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 55c | 999.99$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed No | 77c | 995.56$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.9 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 36c | 947.4$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 6c | 941.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 17c | 899.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 23c | 859.55$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 38c | 835.8$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.51 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 9c | 800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 32c | 795.35$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed Yes | 14c | 703.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 29c | 657.92$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 74c | 647.47$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 621.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 619.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 28c | 611.64$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 8c | 600.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 13c | 600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 23c | 542.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 10c | 542.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 44c | 536.65$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.41 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 25c | 500$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 7c | 455.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed No | 76c | 454$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…a548backed Yes | 23c | 422.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 418.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 10c | 409.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…b499backed Yes | 45c | 400.79$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 20c | 399$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 24c | 389.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 76c | 368.28$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 31c | 339.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed Yes | 26c | 303.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 12c | 301.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed No | 74c | 299.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 294.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 25c | 289.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…ea8fbacked Yes | 17c | 283.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 12c | 280.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a121backed Yes | 7c | 277.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…2c6fbacked No | 66c | 273.04$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 8c | 271.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…f5b6backed Yes | 24c | 266.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 42c | 259.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 258.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…001dbacked Yes | 61c | 244.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 43c | 233.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 22c | 231.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…17ddbacked Yes | 18c | 230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 55c | 222.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965e…0062backed Yes | 27c | 219.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…6b7abacked Yes | 43c | 214.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…679ebacked Yes | 10c | 205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 8c | 197$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 22c | 191.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 27c | 184.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 24c | 184.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 25c | 175.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0581…ea5bbacked Yes | 44c | 169.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…bd2cbacked Yes | 12c | 168.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 167.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 8c | 166.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…057abacked Yes | 30c | 160$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 26c | 155.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…858bbacked Yes | 22c | 149.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 11c | 142.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 79c | 140.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 134.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…bc25backed Yes | 24c | 129.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…c1f2backed Yes | 28c | 127.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 31c | 127$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120-129 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130-139 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140-149 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160-169 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-209 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-229 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230-239 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.