TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf876…7640

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 55 out of 100; worst Tennis at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+76.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$893Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$401.04
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.64
Thunder vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+284.7%+$117.68
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$328.51
Will Elon tweet 250 or more times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+26.7%+$121.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+43%+$249.41
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,198.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2025-10-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$195
Will Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$132.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$2,095
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Barcelona Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,200
Australian Open: Alcaraz vs. Djokovicbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$825
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Bengalsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+91.8%+$275.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$39.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$362.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida State vs. Stanfordbacked Stanford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+58.2%+$349.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+39%+$140.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+33.2%+$119.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,046Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+26.9%+$280.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,118
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida vs. Houstonbacked Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.