Weather · resolved market
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94561e69ecdc2e548ae0ce3087fdc99082f0b6616d2d1d5f2d3ab67f6527fd1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 55c | 15,867$8,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,135.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 0c | 13,650$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 33c | 11,024$3,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,645.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 27c | 10,000$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,259.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0215…c398backed No | 70c | 10,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 49c | 8,884$4,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,551.45 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 26c | 7,480$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,513.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 78c | 6,515$5,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.79 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 27c | 5,711$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 53c | 5,670$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 5,621$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.52 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…574fbacked No | 30c | 5,499$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 69c | 5,456$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 62c | 4,720$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.31 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked No | 7c | 4,440$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 62c | 4,273$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed No | 34c | 4,154$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 34c | 4,136$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 49c | 3,497$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b2…0b43backed No | 41c | 2,896$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe687…4d3ebacked Yes | 79c | 2,721$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 36c | 2,680$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.95 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 40c | 2,584$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 54c | 2,434$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 20c | 2,345$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked No | 43c | 2,157$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 77c | 2,121$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 4cpaid | +1,139.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 48c | 1,796$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…2e2ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,768$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 30c | 1,755$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.24 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 64c | 1,714$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 69c | 1,558$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 22c | 1,545$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 61c | 1,477$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 50c | 1,463$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 61c | 1,422$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 74c | 1,359$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 55c | 1,349$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 68c | 1,225$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 63c | 1,193$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.01 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 32c | 1,190$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked No | 45c | 1,140$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e68…da34backed No | 39c | 996.58$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 20c | 994$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed No | 77c | 973.48$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 39c | 963.56$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 960.68$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…9a18backed Yes | 68c | 935.02$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked Yes | 59c | 899.71$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 18c | 828$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 18c | 828$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 68c | 827.75$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 80c | 750$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked No | 59c | 745.42$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6374backed Yes | 68c | 717.37$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 66c | 710.83$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.83 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed No | 27c | 700$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 47c | 699$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…35d9backed No | 31c | 673.59$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Yes | 76c | 657.78$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 53c | 647.61$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…8099backed No | 40c | 599.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 58c | 575.38$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.05 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked No | 58c | 572.66$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked No | 60c | 529.32$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 29c | 510$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked No | 67c | 495.86$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +400%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…7640backed Yes | 75c | 480.84$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed No | 67c | 479.36$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed No | 42c | 478.18$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked No | 47c | 471.86$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +232%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…c7f3backed Yes | 9c | 453.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +982.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 66c | 451.72$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 35c | 450$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 68c | 447.6$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 45c | 437$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…a5e9backed No | 32c | 419.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 31c | 407.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +434.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 8c | 399.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,161.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 37c | 393.09$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 31c | 342.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 80c | 335.34$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked No | 46c | 327.05$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 16c | 325$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed No | 39c | 322.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…31a8backed No | 36c | 319.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…0104backed Yes | 55c | 309$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…e8bcbacked No | 53c | 303.37$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed No | 15c | 300.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41d…9ba4backed No | 30c | 300.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed No | 74c | 296.76$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 10c | 289.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?this page
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?No won
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?No won
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by Sunday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.