Weather · resolved market
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a8626017d428c3543aa9c15e8fa6011774ae614a41427f82d55df6051a177d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 10c | 18,026$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 6,871$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.8 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 80c | 6,613$5,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 20c | 5,260$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…a69ebacked Yes | 13c | 4,944$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 4,159$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.72 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 1c | 3,933$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 10c | 3,499$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.41 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…9389backed Yes | 19c | 2,602$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3a…ea40backed Yes | 6c | 2,405$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 12c | 2,319$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 2,304$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 74c | 1,795$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…0b7fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,479$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 19c | 1,391$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…d9a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,241$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,127$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6811…1609backed Yes | 3c | 1,107$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 78c | 1,050$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 79c | 1,023$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 27c | 1,006$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…de49backed Yes | 5c | 995$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…089cbacked Yes | 25c | 901.98$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 70c | 871.02$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.45 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 750.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 20c | 741.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…2e2ebacked No | 75c | 733.55$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 2c | 598.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 7c | 522.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 26c | 425.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…b090backed Yes | 13c | 398.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f00…70b4backed Yes | 5c | 390.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…ca8dbacked Yes | 3c | 378.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…dc0ebacked Yes | 6c | 375.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 28c | 340$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 7c | 335.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked No | 64c | 314.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…85d5backed Yes | 20c | 292.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…01cbbacked No | 72c | 284.72$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 21c | 283.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec9…87d7backed Yes | 20c | 260.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 36c | 222.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…6bf5backed Yes | 22c | 207.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 203.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes | 9c | 192.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 72c | 190.57$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 15c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 14c | 157.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8700…e149backed Yes | 17c | 144.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…8dd6backed Yes | 14c | 144.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…1935backed Yes | 21c | 141.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…c1c0backed No | 79c | 127.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 21c | 119.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 72c | 112.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…9bbabacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…55d7backed No | 78c | 109$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed No | 78c | 98.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 35c | 95.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…3fabbacked Yes | 28c | 89.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…1550backed Yes | 29c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…9d60backed No | 70c | 71.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6e…ae38backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…a0b2backed No | 80c | 66.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…eb98backed Yes | 16c | 64.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 70c | 59.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…bc0ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…98babacked Yes | 32c | 46.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…3e42backed No | 68c | 32.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…9b79backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea9…e97ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…7fa8backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?this page
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?No won
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?Yes won
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by Sunday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.