Weather · resolved market
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79038a21cc3d525ad47803486a55f920dd70641b48995e18702c9183956a08a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 74c | 17,103$12,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,483.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 15,230$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,998$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 10c | 9,910$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.29 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 5,892$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 79c | 5,264$4,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.15 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 36c | 4,771$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.57 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked No | 55c | 4,631$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,096.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 52c | 4,442$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 2c | 4,250$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 18c | 3,560$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 51c | 3,489$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 49c | 2,408$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 60c | 2,212$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,809$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 39c | 1,356$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…f79dbacked No | 48c | 1,241$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 40c | 1,215$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 53c | 821.8$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.79 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb14e…0ad5backed Yes | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3049backed No | 43c | 800$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 16c | 766.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed No | 58c | 700.76$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 55c | 700$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 675.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…b090backed Yes | 33c | 660$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…4935backed No | 79c | 578.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 53c | 560$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…7afdbacked Yes | 11c | 553.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 16c | 536.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 57c | 525.31$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…a4bcbacked Yes | 58c | 520$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…de49backed No | 42c | 520$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed No | 40c | 500.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…574fbacked No | 56c | 467.02$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…0de1backed No | 65c | 454.71$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…8caabacked Yes | 21c | 442.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 426.78$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes | 18c | 420$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked No | 78c | 331.73$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…b5fbbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f88…27b0backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…f969backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…d15ebacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…e91bbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…b241backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 6c | 288.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 46c | 244.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 235.53$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…2e2ebacked No | 34c | 234.08$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…1ad0backed Yes | 52c | 223$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 57c | 217.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Yes | 49c | 214.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd191…a5cbbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 29c | 203.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…557bbacked Yes | 60c | 200.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca3…ac1bbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…467ebacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…e559backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fedbbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…0d42backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…c6dbbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1335…bec0backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…4b85backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…7675backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3c…1df0backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…d5e8backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…6a21backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…b33ebacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9062…f017backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…19c8backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 12c | 195$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 44c | 193$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked No | 51c | 188.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…1f13backed Yes | 51c | 188$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a99…e21dbacked No | 49c | 187.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2daf…c1d4backed No | 48c | 178.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…4943backed Yes | 46c | 175.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 52c | 170.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 11c | 166$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 155$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed No | 56c | 151.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 33c | 127.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…ada5backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed No | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed No | 63c | 116.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…def0backed No | 39c | 111$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f6…edf1backed Yes | 58c | 103.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…d230backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f99…114ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…0eddbacked Yes | 60c | 86.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 74c | 86.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed No | 75c | 86.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26?this page
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19?No won
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?Yes won
- Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by Sunday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.