TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$497,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$475,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $497,156 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f03…8973backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No5c25,370$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.7417850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No28c23,286$6,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,584.4790%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes70c15,702$10,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,710.186145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No15c15,058$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.981553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba2…3734backed No6c14,540$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa84…cc4cbacked No5c14,026$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.281060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes78c13,640$10,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,967.962638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4999…5fcebacked No21c13,500$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-43.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d4c…853ebacked No3c10,786$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.491435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d34…b76fbacked No13c10,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0955…8b81backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e54…44fdbacked No12c9,431$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes70c9,209$6,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.721338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No18c8,137$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.933548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes73c7,727$5,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.994156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No26c7,267$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.818453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…6d1dbacked No26c7,249$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No16c7,207$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.933859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e0…b6f5backed No30c7,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb14e…0ad5backed Yes70c7,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes74c6,304$4,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.48739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x025b…01b3backed No32c6,229$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc6…c974backed Yes75c5,863$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f8…26a7backed No25c5,162$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed No11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3001070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed No1c4,753$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes79c4,419$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.42454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Yes68c4,385$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-75.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked No12c4,200$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4941811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No36c3,933$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.45966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No14c3,683$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.513658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab9…0ebcbacked No40c3,664$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1fb…abaebacked No29c3,400$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87cf…41e2backed No9c3,350$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed No25c3,314$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.422055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc532…45c5backed No21c3,312$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0147…85d4backed No22c3,244$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e5…6444backed No29c3,136$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf876…7640backed No37c3,034$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7802040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed No17c2,870$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.583312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No22c2,727$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No22c2,684$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.632524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No24c2,572$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.385756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked No38c2,500$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes75c2,500$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.493268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes75c2,500$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.051457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea85…0c0cbacked Yes75c2,494$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3140…21f1backed No25c2,474$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.77425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No19c2,378$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.183253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6860…ef1fbacked No4c2,266$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd394…587ebacked Yes71c2,260$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No11c2,218$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.6621634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x763b…f5cebacked Yes72c2,111$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Yes76c2,065$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.31825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7a…ae5abacked No7c2,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No19c1,956$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.265343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes76c1,954$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4775756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes77c1,937$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.912343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a84…6a45backed No6c1,900$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed No30c1,856$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.562536%9 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x8e9d…3a63backed Yes75c1,800$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed No29c1,723$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes74c1,708$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.11631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes72c1,600$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4409248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes73c1,500$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4052638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes72c1,500$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.497646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb383…892fbacked No8c1,486$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No24c1,485$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6617021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bae…b5debacked Yes70c1,431$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e9…7a82backed No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x902a…730cbacked No7c1,382$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3d…30e4backed Yes73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No22c1,361$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.423930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e84…4b92backed Yes80c1,358$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes77c1,354$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.261,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3feb…f4aabacked No22c1,343$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404c…4138backed No45c1,323$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed Yes69c1,302$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed No1c1,273$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.633545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8080…5127backed No5c1,273$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x999e…b3a6backed No8c1,207$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8470%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb20b…ddf2backed No19c1,171$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c68…9ed5backed No25c1,155$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542b…0d67backed No26c1,154$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes78c1,119$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e3…2df0backed No9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a28…21bbbacked No27c1,105$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3805…c203backed No25c1,093$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf478…aaa2backed No22c1,045$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d44…11d5backed No20c1,037$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes73c1,030$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.1613540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd48…5747backed No16c1,026$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61b…f73ebacked No15c1,025$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d31…cb04backed Yes65c1,021$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.052050%10 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes73c1,018$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.075743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No23c1,011$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.6821022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No12c1,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.634938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.